During this period of opening market software, a very obvious change can be felt—the market is no longer so noisy.

Looking at the Fear and Greed Index, the data has been stuck at 23 (extreme fear zone) for two consecutive weeks. Throughout December, it has hardly moved away from low sentiment levels. It may seem like a bad sign, but what we really need to pay attention to is not the fear itself.

Where is the problem? The market has started to become indifferent to declines.

This signal is very important—it usually does not mean that the trend is ending, but rather that a structural shift is often imminent.

**The market has experienced a rare "polarization"**

Regarding the outlook for 2026, there is a serious divergence of opinions.

The optimistic side's argument is quite solid: PlanC points out that Bitcoin has never experienced two consecutive years of annual declines in history. Since 2025 is already under pressure, 2026 is more likely to enter a recovery or even reversal cycle. Moreover, from a structural perspective, the entry of ETFs has changed the long-term demand curve for Bitcoin. This kind of correction does not fundamentally mean a trend reversal.

Bitwise's CIO Matt Hougan also shares a similar view, focusing on the long-term structural changes brought by ETFs.

But the pessimists are not without basis. Veteran trader Peter Brandt believes that 2026 could be a long period of "using time to gain space," a prolonged downturn. Fidelity Global Macro Head Jurrien Timmer directly pointed out that there is a realistic possibility that Bitcoin could fall back to $60,000–$65,000.

Here is a detail worth pondering—although the bearish judgment is pessimistic, it at least has specific price expectations. The very existence of this divergence precisely indicates that the market is at a structural adjustment node.