#美联储回购协议计划 Crypto Market Observation: Seize the Short-Term Rebound, Beware of Trend Illusions

From a macro perspective, January's policies lack new stimuli. The probability of rate hikes in Japan is low, and the Fed hasn't truly opened the door to rate cuts yet. During this policy vacuum, there is neither bearish pressure suppressing the market nor strong incentives to reverse the trend.

Instead, this "both bulls and bears are waiting" situation gives the market a breathing space—room for technical correction.

Careful examination of the data shows that the crypto market has been adjusting since October, and it's been nearly two months now. From the perspectives of market sentiment, time cycles, and candlestick structures, we are approaching a critical point for a rebound. Once the Christmas holidays in Europe and America end and funds flow back from outside the market, this correction phase is likely to kick off.

**Here’s a crucial point**: This is only a short-term technical rebound, definitely not a trend reversal signal.

For most people, the January market movement is actually an opportunity window—use this time to readjust positions, reduce risk exposure, or even exit the market entirely. Don’t get overly excited when prices rise, thinking "the bull market is back." Without substantial macroeconomic improvements, such expectations often come at a heavy cost.

The market is playing a correctional chess game, not inviting you to celebrate wildly. Clarify the situation, distinguish between a rebound and a trend, and don’t mistake a "survival window" for a "launch signal."