When will the next Bitcoin bull market arrive? A detailed analysis of historical cycles and future opportunities

Current Bitcoin market is in a stalemate, but historical data tells us: a new chapter in the long cycle is about to begin. According to the latest data, BTC price is hovering around $88.87K, still room below the all-time high of $126.08K. So, when will the next real bull market start? The answer lies in Bitcoin’s four-year cycle.

The Necessity of the Next Bull Run from the Halving Cycle Perspective

Bitcoin’s price cycles are closely linked to halving events. Every four years, the network rewards are halved, directly reducing new coin supply. Historical data shows:

• After the 2012 halving: BTC increased by 5,200%
• After the 2016 halving: BTC increased by 315%
• After the 2020 halving: BTC increased by 700%
• After the April 2024 halving: the rise has not yet fully unleashed its potential

The fourth halving in April 2024 occurred just over a year ago. According to historical patterns, the real acceleration usually appears 6-12 months after halving. This suggests that the critical window may be in mid to late 2025.

Institutional Investment at a New Scale: ETF-Driven Turning Point

If the previous three bull markets were driven by retail investors and tech enthusiasts, then the changes in 2024 are qualitatively different—the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs has changed the game.

In January 2024, the US SEC approved a spot BTC ETF. By November, inflows exceeded $4.5 billion. In comparison, the entire gold ETF market has seen more moderate growth. What does this indicate?

• Traditional financial institutions are systematically accumulating positions
• Large institutional investors (e.g., BlackRock’s iBIT fund holding 467,000 BTC) are far from their allocation limits
• Corporate holders (like MicroStrategy) continue to increase reserves

This institutional force differs from the FOMO of retail in 2017; it is more durable and resilient to dips. Once the market triggers new catalysts, these institutional investments will provide sustained buying support.

Policy Catalysts: From Uncertainty to Clear Support

The political changes at the end of 2024 create new possibilities for Bitcoin. The expectation of Trump returning to the White House and a “pro-crypto” policy, along with Senator Cynthia Lummis proposing the “2024 Bitcoin Act” (which suggests the US Treasury could acquire 1 million BTC over five years), point in one direction: the demand for government-level reserve assets.

Early adopters include:

• Bhutan holding over 13,000 BTC through its national investment fund
• El Salvador holding 5,875 BTC and making it legal tender in 2021

If the US or other major economies adopt similar policies, the demand for Bitcoin could surge by thousands of times. This is no longer a question of “if,” but “when.”

Technological Upgrades Open New Imagination Space

Expectations for Bitcoin Layer-2 scaling solutions and the reactivation of the OP_CAT opcode are brewing. If OP_CAT is approved, Bitcoin could:

• Support DeFi applications (competing with Ethereum)
• Increase throughput from 7 transactions per second to thousands
• Enable more complex smart contract ecosystems

This would transform Bitcoin from a simple “store of value” into a full-fledged application platform. Every technological breakthrough in history has led to a new round of price revaluation.

On-Chain Data Revealing Accumulation Signals

Observe several key market indicators:

1. Accelerating outflows of Bitcoin from exchanges: Institutions and whales are transferring BTC into cold wallets, indicating an upcoming upward phase
2. Decline in stablecoin inflows: New buying power is weakening, but holders are accumulating, a typical bottom indicator
3. Active wallet addresses: Currently at 55,106,626, a new all-time high, indicating continuous new participants

These signals suggest: the market is not in euphoria (which is good), but in rational accumulation.

The Timeline of the Past Three Bull Markets

From history, we can extract patterns:

2013 Bull Market: from $145 to $1,200 (730% increase)

• Trigger: Infrastructure initial development + Cyprus banking crisis
• Cycle: about 7 months of rapid rise

2017 Bull Market: from $1,000 to $20,000 (1,900% increase)

• Trigger: ICO craze + mainstream media frenzy + increased exchange usability
• Cycle: about 11 months of sustained rise

2020-2021 Bull Market: from $8,000 to $64,000 (700% increase)

• Trigger: COVID economic stimulus + institutional recognition (MicroStrategy and others) + “digital gold” narrative
• Cycle: about 14 months (though the price hit $64K in April, the real frenzy was later)

Pattern: Each bull market cycle requires a 3-6 month accumulation period before launch, with the most active rally concentrated in 6-12 months.

Key Indicators to Watch in 2025

To catch the next bull market, focus on:

Macro Indicators:

• US real interest rates (if continuing to decline, enhances Bitcoin’s appeal)
• Global central bank policies (loose cycles tend to boost risk assets)
• Geopolitical tensions (uncertainty drives capital to hedge assets)

On-Chain Indicators:

• Percentage of BTC held for over 1 year (if over 65%, confidence is very high)
• Changes in whale holdings (if whales are accumulating, retail should follow)
• Transaction fee environment (low fees suggest the market is not yet crowded)

Market Indicators:

• RSI (below 30 indicates oversold, potential rebound)
• Spot and futures basis (positive and expanding indicates strong bullish sentiment)
• ETF holdings growth (monthly increase over $500M suggests continuous institutional inflow)

Currently, at $88.87K, the price is in a “neither cheap nor expensive” zone—this is the golden window for accumulation.

How to Prepare for the Next Bull Market

Instead of guessing the exact timing, focus on the following preparations:

Psychological readiness: Accept volatility. Historically, each bull run has seen 20-30% retracements. Don’t panic during dips; view them as buying opportunities.

Fund management:

• Use dollar-cost averaging rather than lump-sum investments
• Keep at least 30% cash for dips
• Set stop-loss points (but not too tight, as crypto stop-losses are often triggered prematurely)

Channels:

• Use secure, reputable exchanges with 2FA enabled
• Learn cold storage solutions; long-term holders should transfer to hardware wallets

Information sources:

• Follow on-chain analysis teams’ real-time reports
• Track policy developments (regulatory attitudes in various countries)
• Join professional communities, but beware of herd mentality

Risks and Realities

It must be acknowledged that the next bull market is not guaranteed. Factors that could delay or suppress the rise include:

• Macroeconomic recession: global economic crises could drag risk assets down
• Policy reversals: bans or restrictions by major countries could damage sentiment
• Competitive pressures: Layer-2 solutions on other chains might divert ecosystem value
• ESG concerns: mining energy consumption issues may attract regulatory scrutiny

Final Judgment: The Timing Window for the Next Bull Market

Based on a comprehensive analysis of halving cycles, institutional accumulation, technological readiness, and policy expectations:

Most probable start window: Q3-Q4 2025 or Q1 2026

Conditions for launch:

1. The Federal Reserve enters a rate-cutting cycle (reducing risk asset costs)
2. Clear policy support emerges (e.g., national adoption commitments)
3. On-chain signals fully shift (major holders’ positions continue to rise)

Reasonable expectation: If the bull market starts, based on historical patterns and current institutional participation, targets of $150K-$200K are not unreasonable. But this would require 12-18 months after the trigger conditions are met.

The most important thing now: Don’t miss the ongoing institutional accumulation window. Each month in 2025 could be the most affordable buying opportunity in the next decade. Bitcoin’s history repeatedly proves—those who accumulate patiently will ultimately gain wealth.

The key is to stay disciplined amid volatility and find certainty in uncertainty. The next big bull run may not come as suddenly as in 2017, but once it starts, its strength will surpass everyone’s expectations.