Bitcoin Bull Market Code: How the Next Market Cycle Will Begin Based on Historical Patterns

In the tumultuous waves of the crypto market, Bitcoin has always played the leading role. Since its inception in 2009, this world’s largest crypto asset has experienced several remarkable bull markets—from a sevenfold increase in 2013, to nearly twenty times surge in 2017, to the institutional wave in 2021—each rewriting the market landscape. Currently, the 2024-25 market is illustrating the arrival of a new era.

Understanding the evolution logic of these cycles is crucial for grasping future bull market opportunities.

How Are Bull Markets Formed? Key Factors Fully Explained

Every wave of Bitcoin’s rise is not accidental but results from the resonance of multiple factors. The halving cycle is the most powerful driving force—every four years, the mining reward halving significantly reduces new supply. Historical data shows: after the 2012 halving, the price increased by 5200%; after 2016, by 315%; after 2020, by 230%. This supply-side scarcity has forged Bitcoin’s destiny cycle.

The influx of institutional capital has changed the game. In January 2024, the US SEC approved a spot Bitcoin ETF, causing capital to flood in. By November, these ETFs had absorbed over $4.5 billion, with BlackRock’s IBIT fund holding over 467,000 BTC, creating unprecedented institutional recognition. This has transformed Bitcoin from a geek asset into a must-have in global asset allocation.

Policy and narrative shifts are also significant. From “digital gold” to “inflation hedge,” and now to “national strategic reserve asset”—each upgrade in Bitcoin’s narrative has been accompanied by a new wave of capital inflow. Especially in 2024, with the US political establishment establishing a crypto-friendly stance, market confidence has been further reinforced.

How to Identify Bull Market Signals? On-Chain Data Provides the Answer

Technical analysis and on-chain data are dual indicators for recognizing the start of a bull market. When RSI continues to break above 70, and prices stay above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, it usually signals the establishment of a strong upward trend. Bitcoin’s performance in 2024 confirms this—rising from $40K at the start of the year to $93K in November, a 132% increase, with RSI remaining high for an extended period.

On-chain data is more forward-looking. The decline in exchange BTC balances indicates accumulation by large holders; massive inflows of stablecoins suggest new capital is preparing to enter; rising wallet activity marks increasing market heat. In 2024, this was especially evident: companies like MicroStrategy and Square continued to increase their holdings, further shrinking the circulating supply of BTC—fuel for the bull market’s accumulation phase.

Lessons from Past Bull Markets: Four Major Waves from 2013 to 2024

The first breakout in 2013, though relatively small (730% increase), was profoundly significant. It announced Bitcoin’s viability as a store of value, attracting early tech enthusiasts and financial innovators. Despite an 85% retracement later, it laid the foundation for subsequent development.

2017 was a retail frenzy. The ICO boom, media hype, and explosive growth of exchanges pushed Bitcoin from $1K to $20K within a year. Daily trading volume soared from $200 million to $15 billion—an unprecedented liquidity release. The cost was an over 80% correction afterward, but it proved the market’s gradual maturation.

2020-21 marked the dawn of the institutional era. Pandemic-driven liquidity flooding and inflation expectations, along with public endorsements from Tesla, MicroStrategy, and others, elevated Bitcoin from a niche financial experiment to a global asset. The 700% surge from $8K to $64K reflected the entire financial system’s re-pricing of digital assets.

The current 2024-25 market combines all previous advantages. The approval of spot ETFs removed the last barrier for institutional entry; the fourth halving in April arrived as scheduled; political support cleared policy obstacles for long-term development. This bull market is no longer a retail speculative game but a structural adjustment of the entire financial system.

Current Challenges and Long-Term Opportunities

Bitcoin faces risks that cannot be ignored: the risk of a high-level correction always exists, especially amid retail FOMO; macroeconomic disturbances (interest rate changes, recession expectations) could trigger significant adjustments; regulatory uncertainties still cast a shadow over global markets.

But from a long-term perspective, supporting factors are more convincing. The US may include Bitcoin in its strategic reserves (the BITCOIN bill proposed in 2024 suggests purchasing 1 million BTC within five years); many countries’ government reserve allocations (Bhutan holds 13,000 BTC, El Salvador 5,800 BTC) indicate a gradual recognition at the national level; technological upgrades like OP_CAT could enhance Bitcoin’s smart contract capabilities, opening up DeFi possibilities.

How to Win in the Next Bull Market?

Step 1: Build a knowledge system. Understanding Bitcoin’s technical fundamentals, historical cycles, and market sentiment across these three dimensions is essential to stay clear amid volatility.

Step 2: Develop a risk management framework. Clarify your risk tolerance, investment horizon, and stop-loss levels. History shows that chasing highs often results in heavy losses.

Step 3: Choose secure trading infrastructure. Trade on large exchanges like Gate.io that offer rigorous security audits, 2FA verification, cold wallet custody, etc.; also, use hardware wallets for long-term storage.

Step 4: Keep an eye on macro variables. ETF capital flows, policy developments, on-chain data, institutional moves—these are key references for judging the bull market phase.

Step 5: Avoid emotional decisions. Greed and fear are the enemies of trading. Set up automated tools (like stop-loss orders) to let systems rather than emotions guide your actions.

When Will the Next Bull Market Come?

Precise prediction is impossible, but cycle patterns are trackable. Major technological upgrades, supply shocks (halving), policy shifts, and institutional capital inflows tend to converge at certain points, triggering explosive growth.

Key events to watch in 2025 include: the final consensus on OP_CAT upgrade, more countries announcing reserve holdings, and signals of the next halving cycle. Staying sensitive to these variables ensures you won’t miss the next upward wave.

Currently, Bitcoin hovers around $89K, up 122% from $40K at the start of the year, with about 42% room to reach the all-time high of $126K. Whether you are a long-term holder or a trader, the key is to develop strategies based on cycle understanding—so when the bull market truly arrives, you won’t be a passive spectator but an active profit-taker.

Bitcoin’s story is still unfolding. Will you be part of the next chapter?