2025-12-26 14:27:27

Last week's CPI data released marked the biggest "unexpected decline" since 2009, with all 62 predictors surveyed by Bloomberg being proven wrong. Sounds good, but here comes the problem.

The longest government shutdown in history directly messed up data collection. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) lacked most of October's price data, which not only affected the calculation of monthly changes but also caused economists to point out that November's data was also discounted. The market simply dubbed the November CPI report the "Swiss Cheese Report"—full of holes.

Here's the key point. The December CPI will be released on January 13, and this data is highly significant. Why? Because it will be published before the Federal Reserve's meeting at the end of January, and the decisions made at this meeting are crucial for market expectations. This report can provide the Fed and traders with a truly clear picture of the economy, no longer relying on guesswork from incomplete data.

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GasFeePhobia

· 7h ago

Hmm... the government shutdown turned the data into Swiss cheese, and all 62 predictors failed. I just can't figure out this plot.

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RatioHunter

· 7h ago

Haha, all 62 predictors got proven wrong. There's already a problem with this data itself. --- Swiss Cheese Report haha, the market naming is quite creative. --- Wait, the government shutdown messed up the data, does this decline still count? --- The January 13th report is the real test; everything else is just noise. --- The Federal Reserve is looking at this complete data; ignore the previous ones. --- Incomplete data guessing game, changing the name to "False Breakout Market."

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GasWaster

· 8h ago

All 62 analysts were proven wrong, haha. This is the kind of reversal plot I like. Wait, is there a problem with the data itself? Then this round of rise and fall is purely gambling. January 13th is the real test; everything else is just virtual.

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ColdWalletAnxiety

· 8h ago

Haha, 62 predictors collectively failed, how embarrassing is that? Wait, with such incomplete data, you still have the nerve to post? The Swiss cheese report is spot on, very accurate. The one from January 13th is the real test; the truth will come out then.

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