Stop Fantasizing: The Four-Year Cycle Curse Might Have Been Broken

Recently, many people are planning their 2026 ahead of schedule—according to historical logic, a rebound in February to April, a gradual decline starting in May, and a bottoming out by Q4. It sounds just like 2018 and 2022.

But here’s the problem: if history were so reliable, 2025 should have already replicated the狂欢 of 2017 and 2021. The reality? BTC hitting over 120,000 has lost its excitement, and we're still far from a true "liquidity bull market."

**Where's the root cause? Quite straightforward—there's simply no liquidity injection.**

What you're seeing now is, frankly, structural opportunities, not a broad bull market driven by water rising tides. In other words, 2026 is unlikely to see the kind of one-sided plunge like in 2022.

Instead, what’s more probable is a series of oscillations. A rise, sideways consolidation, then another move in either direction. Just like from September 2024 to January 2025, and then from April to October 2025—this rhythm persists. Right now, we’re stuck in a "garbage time" oscillation window.

**So when will the next phase truly take off?**

Don’t rush; the key signals might only become clear around mid-January. Until then, the market will continue to grind.

You should focus on these points:

If the price falls below a key support level and market sentiment begins to panic, it’s time to sound the alarm. Conversely, if the price can hold support and market sentiment starts to improve, then the market will have the confidence to continue upward.

**In this era of "structural markets," passive earning is a thing of the past.**

Sector rotations will accelerate, and capital will become more "temperamental." Only projects that can generate real returns and have cash flow to sustain themselves will long-term attract funds.

From another perspective, in times of market uncertainty, protocols with intrinsic revenue-generating capabilities become the "safe havens" in investors’ eyes. Regardless of whether the environment is bullish or bearish, whether it’s a single trend or oscillation, these projects’ frameworks help assets achieve sustainable income.

If you agree that the next market phase won’t be a broad rally, then focusing on projects that truly build on underlying value is a smart move—adding them to your watchlist.

Cycles change, strategies evolve, but the data on returns never lies. Keep an eye on market signals and plan your strategy in advance.