Ethereum's scalability ambitions: How The Surge will reshape blockchain speed and costs

Ethereum is undergoing an ambitious technological evolution. The major upgrade plan called The Surge aims to push the transaction throughput of this world’s largest smart contract platform beyond 100,000 TPS—whether on layer one or layer two networks. Achieving this goal will not sacrifice decentralization features nor compromise network security.

Why Ethereum Needs Large-Scale Scalability

Currently, Ethereum mainnet (Layer 1) has a processing capacity of about 15-30 TPS. This speed is sufficient when the network is idle, but during congestion, gas fees spike dramatically, making transaction costs unbearable for ordinary users.

Ethereum founder Виталик Бутерин positions The Surge as a critical phase in the network development roadmap, with the core task of achieving exponential growth in throughput while maintaining security and decentralization. This is not only a technical milestone but also crucial for Ethereum to truly support a global application ecosystem.

The Three Pillars of The Surge

Ultra-High Throughput Technical Foundation: Layer 2 Rollup Solutions

Rollup technology is the core engine of The Surge. These solutions bundle many transactions off-chain and then submit only the summarized data to Ethereum mainnet. This “process first, verify later” architecture significantly reduces the computational burden on the main chain.

Currently, there are two main types of Rollups in the market:

Optimistic Rollups assume all transactions are valid unless someone disputes within a set timeframe. This mechanism simplifies validation and accelerates transaction confirmation.

Zero-Knowledge Rollups (ZK-Rollups) use cryptographic proofs (zero-knowledge proofs) for instant validation, ensuring transaction legitimacy through cryptography rather than time delays.

According to data from L2Beat, the total value locked (TVL) in Ethereum layer 2 ecosystems has grown by 216% over the past 12 months, surpassing $38 billion. This indicates that Rollup technology has gained market recognition and lays a foundation for the full implementation of The Surge.

Data Availability Sampling (DAS):: Revolutionizing Node Efficiency

In decentralized networks, each node theoretically needs to verify all transaction data. But doing so causes explosive growth in storage costs, ultimately threatening decentralization.

DAS technology breaks this deadlock. It allows nodes to download and verify only a small part of the data, with the entire network collectively ensuring data integrity. This distributed validation approach reduces node operation costs while maintaining security.

DAS has two advanced versions: PeerDAS uses peer-to-peer networks to distribute verification loads, with each node independently checking data subsets; 2D DAS further optimizes data partitioning and cross-verification mechanisms, supporting higher transaction volumes while ensuring high security.

Plasma and Data Compression: Making Every Byte Count

Plasma, as an off-chain scaling solution, moves transaction processing logic entirely outside Ethereum, with the main chain only receiving necessary transaction summaries. ZK-SNARKs cryptographic technology further enhances security by tracking fund flows through “parallel ledgers.”

Data compression improves efficiency from another angle—for example, replacing standard digital signatures with BLS aggregate signatures, which can combine hundreds of signatures into one, significantly saving block space.

The Specific Timeline of The Surge

Q1 2024: The Era of Proto-Danksharding Begins

EIP-4844 introduces “data blobs” that will directly improve data costs for layer 2 networks. Mainstream L2 platforms like Arbitrum, Optimism, zkSync will deploy this feature first, allowing users to immediately experience lower transaction fees.

2024-2025: Comprehensive Rollup Ecosystem Upgrades

Major Rollup projects will launch optimization solutions, with widespread adoption of SNARKs and other cryptographic proofs. PeerDAS and 2D DAS systems will gradually expand to handle higher transaction volumes.

End of 2025: Layer 1 Infrastructure Optimization

The introduction of EOF (Ethereum Object Format) will significantly improve smart contract execution efficiency, further reducing gas fees. Multi-dimensional gas pricing models will begin testing, allowing users to pay based on actual computation, data, or storage costs. Native Rollups may be directly integrated into the Ethereum protocol.

2026 and Beyond: Full Danksharding and Continuous Evolution

Proto-Danksharding will upgrade to a complete data sharding architecture, with Ethereum’s throughput expected to reach 100,000+ TPS. Future updates will also include post-quantum cryptography defenses and enhanced interoperability between L2s.

Practical Impact on Users and Developers

Dramatic Reduction in Transaction Costs

Currently, ETH transfers on L2 networks like Arbitrum and Optimism cost about $0.24-$0.78. After deploying The Surge, this figure is expected to decrease several times. Frequent traders—whether DeFi users, gamers, or NFT collectors—will benefit directly.

Qualitative Leap in Application Experience

Developers will gain sufficient transaction throughput to build complex dApps. DeFi protocols can settle transactions nearly in real-time, on-chain games will run smoothly like centralized applications, and NFT marketplaces will handle high concurrency. Faster confirmations mean improved user experience, attracting more mainstream users.

Unified Ecosystem Experience

Asset transfers across L1 and L2 will become as simple as transferring between wallets. Ethereum will no longer be fragmented into multiple parallel chains but will form a seamless integrated ecosystem. Users and developers will no longer struggle with complex cross-chain operations.

Unavoidable Security Risks

Scalability also introduces new security risks due to increased complexity. Rollup systems rely on cryptographic proofs’ unbreakability; any potential vulnerabilities could lead to fund risks. Виталик Бутерин specifically warns about the long-term threat posed by quantum computing—Ethereum teams are already developing quantum-resistant cryptography solutions as a precaution.

Additionally, during the transition from Proto-Danksharding to full Danksharding, the network may experience temporary instability, and gas fees could fluctuate during the transition period. Users and developers need to stay alert and adapt to protocol evolutions promptly.

Ethereum’s Roadmap

The Surge is just a milestone in Ethereum’s roadmap. Subsequent phases include The Splurge (focused on gas pricing and transaction format optimization), The Verge (improving consensus efficiency through stateless clients), The Purge (cleaning redundant data and optimizing node performance), and more.

Ethereum’s ultimate goal is to create a blockchain capable of supporting hundreds of millions of users worldwide, without compromising security and decentralization at any stage.

Summary

The Surge represents a culmination of Ethereum’s scalability exploration. Through a combination of Rollup, DAS, Plasma, and other technologies, Ethereum’s upgrade plan aims to push the network to over 100,000+ TPS. For users, this means significantly lower gas fees and faster transactions; for developers, it opens the door to building more complex and ambitious decentralized applications.

However, every major upgrade comes with risks. Potential vulnerabilities in L2 solutions and network instability during transitions require the community to stay vigilant. Ethereum’s success depends on each upgrade balancing innovation and stability. The Surge’s progression itself is a carefully orchestrated technological evolution, laying the foundation for a more scalable, efficient, and secure blockchain future.