There is no universal formula in this market, but mastering a few ironclad rules can save you a lot of tuition fees.

After years of navigating the crypto space, my deepest impression is: smart people are not lacking, what’s missing are those who have their own stable logic. Today I’ll share my summarized investment approach, purely based on personal experience. Feel free to make your own choices.

**Key Tip: Finding the right pond is more important than choosing the right fish**

A common misconception is chasing "hundredfold coins" every day, without considering which track they belong to. It’s like practicing perfect fishing techniques in a small ditch—don’t expect to catch big fish.

My four criteria for selecting tracks are:

**Thickness — Is the profit margin sufficient?** Imagine a snowball rolling down a hill; without enough thick snow, no matter how strong the push, it won’t roll into a big ball. The leading products that emerged during the DeFi boom in 2020 hit the jackpot by focusing on decentralized trading and lending—areas with the highest profit density.

**Width — How many sub-tracks can it expand into?** Once you choose a direction, does it have the potential to extend outward? Can it form network effects? For example, the DEX track can gradually expand from spot trading to NFT trading and derivatives trading. This kind of expansion ability is much stronger than a single lending track. Once network effects kick in, the growth curve becomes entirely different.

**Length — How long can the track last?** Avoid tracks that are purely hype-driven or short-term concepts that quickly exhaust imagination. These are often fleeting. Truly promising tracks should resemble e-commerce—having lasting evolution space and market demand, capable of sustaining a development cycle of over 10 years.

**Core — Does it truly leverage the advantages of blockchain?** This is the most easily overlooked point. The reason DeFi and NFTs have survived until now is because they are highly aligned with blockchain’s fundamental attributes: decentralization, censorship resistance, and self-sovereignty. Conversely, projects that can switch to a centralized system are burdensome for blockchain.

When all four dimensions align, the track is worth long-term attention. Instead of entangling yourself in picking specific projects within a track, it’s better to focus on judging the overall direction. Because a mature track often accommodates multiple leading projects coexisting, while a declining track makes even the strongest projects hard to avoid downward trends.