2024-2025 Cryptocurrency Bull Market Cycle: The Evolution of Bitcoin from Historical Lows to New Highs

The cyclical nature of the crypto market has been evident for a long time. From the first major surge in 2013, to retail frenzy in 2017, and the turning point with institutional entry in 2020-2021, each bull market has brought new narratives and participants. The current wave unfolding in 2024-2025 marks the deep integration of Bitcoin with traditional finance.

Why 2024 Has Become a Key Turning Point for the Crypto Bull Market

Bitcoin’s performance in 2024 has broken multiple records. Rising from around $40,000 at the beginning of the year to the current $88,800, with a total increase of over 120%. Behind this rally, three core forces are driving:

Approval of SEC Spot Bitcoin ETFs has provided institutional investors with a compliant entry channel. To date, inflows into Bitcoin ETFs have exceeded $28 billion, far surpassing traditional gold ETFs, which is unprecedented in crypto market history.

The fourth halving event in April continues to validate this cyclical pattern—each halving triggers a new supply scarcity expectation. Historical data shows that after the 2012 halving, Bitcoin rose by 5200%; after 2016, by 315%; and after 2020, by 230%. This time is no exception.

Favorable political signals add certainty to the long-term prospects of crypto assets. Increasing voices support Bitcoin as a strategic reserve asset, which was rare in previous bull markets.

From Retail Frenzy to Institutional Dominance: The Evolution of Bitcoin Bull Markets

2013: $145 to $1,200, the Original Frenzy

Bitcoin’s first major bull run occurred in 2013, surging from $145 in May to $1,200 in December, a 730% increase. At that time, Bitcoin was still unfamiliar, driven by simple factors—curiosity about new concepts, the Cyprus banking crisis sparking safe-haven demand, and overwhelming media coverage.

However, this bull market ended with the collapse of Mt. Gox in 2014. The exchange handled about 70% of global Bitcoin trading volume, and its failure plunged the entire market into a prolonged bear phase. This was the first lesson for early participants—how significant infrastructure risks can be.

2017: $1,000 to $20,000, Retail’s First Awakening

The 2017 bull market changed everything. Bitcoin jumped from $1,000 at the start of the year to nearly $20,000 by year-end, a 1900% increase. The driving force was the ICO boom—thousands of new projects emerged, new exchanges lowered participation barriers, and retail investors flooded in.

This was also the first time the “FOMO” (Fear of Missing Out) phenomenon fully fermented. Rising prices attracted media attention, which in turn drew more people in, creating a self-reinforcing feedback loop. But this bull market also ended with global regulatory crackdowns (notably China’s ban on ICOs), and Bitcoin fell 84% from its peak.

2020-2021: $8,000 to $69,000, Institutional Entry Officially Begins

The narrative of this bull market changed dramatically. Bitcoin was no longer just a “speculative asset” but redefined as “digital gold.” Public companies like MicroStrategy and Square began adding Bitcoin to their balance sheets, with institutional capital inflows exceeding $10 billion.

The economic uncertainty caused by COVID-19, combined with loose monetary policies worldwide, made inflation hedging urgent. Bitcoin, with its fixed supply, naturally possesses anti-inflation properties. This marked the shift of the crypto bull market from being primarily driven by retail investors to being led by institutions.

New Features of 2024-2025: The Era of ETFs

If previous bull markets were mainly “event-driven,” this wave in 2024-2025 shows characteristics of “institutionalization and systematic advancement.”

New Heights in Institutional Holdings

MicroStrategy has accumulated over 140,000 Bitcoin, and holdings by other institutional investors are also increasing. More importantly, the launch of Bitcoin ETFs provides a simple option for institutions that prefer not to hold Bitcoin directly.

Government-Level Participation

Countries like Bhutan and El Salvador have incorporated Bitcoin into their national reserves. U.S. lawmakers have proposed the “Bitcoin Act,” aiming to purchase 1 million Bitcoins within five years. Such government recognition is a milestone in crypto history.

Prospects for Technological Upgrades

Major updates are brewing for the Bitcoin network. The potential re-enabling of the OP_CAT opcode could introduce Layer-2 scaling solutions and DeFi functionalities. If realized, Bitcoin’s application scenarios will expand significantly, moving beyond just a “store of value.”

Risks to Watch in the Bull Market

History shows that each bull market is accompanied by risk accumulation.

Market Volatility as a Norm

Price swings are inherent to Bitcoin. In 2024, multiple 10-15% corrections have already occurred, which could cause psychological stress for risk-averse investors.

Regulatory Uncertainty

While the regulatory environment in 2024 is relatively friendly, global frameworks are still evolving. Any signals of tightening regulation could trigger panic.

Macroeconomic Shocks

Interest rate changes, recession expectations, inflation data, and other macro factors will influence Bitcoin’s performance. The entry of institutional investors also increases Bitcoin’s correlation with the broader financial system.

Formation of Speculative Bubbles

When retail investors enter in large numbers via ETFs and other tools, short-term trading activity increases, potentially amplifying volatility and creating artificial highs.

How to Prepare for the Next Phase

Establish a Clear Investment Framework

Define your goals—whether for long-term appreciation or short-term gains—as this determines your strategy. Long-term holders should focus on halving cycles and adoption growth; short-term traders need to pay attention to technical and sentiment indicators.

Prioritize Infrastructure Security

Choose reputable, licensed trading platforms, enable two-factor authentication, and implement security measures. Long-term Bitcoin investors are advised to use hardware wallets for self-custody to avoid exchange risks.

Monitor Key Indicators

Regularly track on-chain data (address activity, exchange inflows/outflows, long-term holder behavior), technical indicators (RSI, MACD), and macro indicators (Federal Reserve policies, global liquidity).

Diversify, Not Concentrate

While Bitcoin remains the core of the crypto bull market, relying solely on one asset carries risks. Appropriately allocate other cryptocurrencies or traditional assets to balance overall risk.

Stay Informed and Cautious

The Bitcoin market is constantly evolving. Learning from past bull markets, understanding different cycle characteristics, is essential for participation in crypto investments.

When Will the Next Bull Market Begin?

While no one can predict precisely, historical rhythms offer reference. Bitcoin’s halving cycle occurs approximately every four years, closely aligning with bull-bear transitions. The next halving is expected around 2028.

The current 2024-2025 cycle is still in its early stages. Based on indicators like institutional participation, government recognition, and technological progress, there is considerable room for growth. However, overly optimistic market sentiment (with bullish and bearish views at about 50%) also calls for increased caution.

Key signals to watch include: continued acceleration of ETF inflows, progress in government Bitcoin purchases, practical applications of Layer-2 solutions, and changes in global regulatory attitudes.

Conclusion

Bitcoin has grown from $145 in 2013 to $88,800 today, completing a leap from concept validation to a financial asset. Each crypto bull market has rewritten participants’ understanding of this asset and changed the composition of market players.

The current wave in 2024-2025 is completing the final shift from “retail speculation” to “institutional allocation.” This presents both opportunities and challenges—opportunities in market recognition and liquidity reaching new heights, and challenges in increased volatility and risks.

For investors, the most important thing is not to chase a particular bull run but to understand market cycles, participate with thorough preparation, and stay rational amid volatility. History repeatedly proves that those who survive to the next cycle are often the biggest winners.