2025-12-26 13:23:22

Entering 2026, discussions about the impact of spot ETFs on the market are still ongoing. It is necessary to clarify a misconception: ETFs do indeed influence the market, but not in a simple linear relationship of "buying leads to rises, selling leads to falls."

The direction of the Bitcoin market is shaped by multiple forces—institutional positioning, on-chain activity, macro environmental factors, technical performance, and more. Attributing market performance entirely to a single factor fundamentally ignores the complexity of the market.

To see this clearly, it's actually very simple: open the daily chart, compare the price trend from November 21 to now with the net inflow/outflow data of ETFs during the same period, and you will find that their correlation is not as straightforward as imagined. The true dominant forces in the market are always a balance of multi-dimensional influences.

BTC-1.09%

View Original

This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.

20 Likes

Reward
20
7
Repost
Share

Comment

0/400

ShitcoinArbitrageur

· 4h ago

Ha, here we go again, blaming ETFs. So many people love this routine. Basically, it's just looking for a scapegoat; anyway, losing money is always blamed on external factors. Looking at the daily chart, it does seem that way, but honestly, few people actually compare data. The market is so complex that single-factor theories should have been thrown into the trash long ago.

View OriginalReply0

TradFiRefugee

· 4h ago

Talking about tactics on paper, those who actually watch the market know that ETFs are not a万能灵药 It's easy to say but the reality is a tangled mess, with many factors mixed together After looking at the daily chart, it's indeed not that simple, that's the real truth And here comes another "multi-dimensional balance theory," can we just say that the rise and fall depend on institutional sentiment Why do some still believe that buying ETFs必涨, wake up everyone I saw the market trend in November, it doesn't match the inflow data at all Those who are truly making money accept that this is a complex game, only beginners obsess over ETF buying

View OriginalReply0

OptionWhisperer

· 5h ago

Well said, finally someone has broken through this layer of paper. Those arguments that "ETF buying will definitely lead to a rise" every day are really enough; looking smart but actually the laziest way of thinking. --- What linear relationship are you talking about? The market is so complex, who would believe in forcing formulas? --- Haha, this is the real market observation. Most people just want to find a simple answer; when an ETF is launched, the market rises and falls, so convenient. But the truth is never simple. --- Instead of obsessing over ETF net inflows, it's better to look at on-chain data, macro environment, and other real variables, but that requires brains. --- Comparing data from November to now reveals the truth; those confident in "I understand ETFs" actually understand nothing. --- The logic that the market is driven by multiple factors is fine, but too many people still want to find that "one-hit kill" factor. Can't help it, the desire to make quick money is too strong. --- Misconceptions definitely exist, but what’s even more painful is— even if you see through it, most retail investors can't change their habit of chasing gains and selling on dips; there's too much distance between knowing and doing.

View OriginalReply0

BoredApeResistance

· 5h ago

Well said. I just dislike this kind of either-or rhetoric, as if ETFs are the remote control of the market. I took a quick look at the chart, and it's indeed not as simple as it seems. Multiple variables acting together are the norm. Institutions, on-chain factors, macro policies—all mixed together. Blaming ETFs alone is a bit too naive.

View OriginalReply0

WalletManager

· 5h ago

Real on-chain whales have long seen through this; ETFs are just superficial articles. The key still depends on the distribution of chips in wallet addresses—that's the real market signal.

View OriginalReply0

FUD_Vaccinated

· 5h ago

Ha, still blaming ETFs again, huh? This old trick. Honestly, after so many bull and bear cycles, those who rely on single-factor theories have all been beaten up by the market at least once. ETF influence does exist, but most people using it as a universal excuse are trying to shift blame onto institutions. On-chain data, macro trends, sentiment—these things intertwined are the real drivers of price. Compare the daily chart with net inflow to understand everything. Those influencers who only shout "ETF bottoming必涨" should have already reflected on themselves. The market is far more complex than imagined, and this is the truth that is most easily overlooked.

View OriginalReply0

NFTFreezer

· 5h ago

Wait, I looked at the wave on November 21st, and the data doesn't match at all... This guy still has a point. --- Another person blaming ETFs, wake up everyone, these are just tools. --- Really, obsessing over ETF net inflows and outflows every day is pointless; better to look at the contract liquidation data, haha. --- Good point, but I still think institutions are pushing behind the scenes, don't fool me. --- Multidimensional balance of forces? Sounds right, but no one can really sort out these dimensions. --- To be honest, the market is never that simple; if anyone truly believes in a single factor, they are just a rookie.

View OriginalReply0