Yesterday, after the release of the non-farm payroll data, the performance of the crypto market was remarkable—Bitcoin surged by 5,000 points within half an hour, and Ethereum broke through the $2,300 mark. Interestingly, during the same period, the US stock market performed flatly, with the Dow Jones and Nasdaq rising only 0.3%. Both are positive signals, so why did the two markets react so differently?

Non-farm employment data is a barometer of the US labor market, directly reflecting changes in employment in the non-agricultural sector. When the data falls below expectations, the market interprets it as potential economic pressure, which in turn raises expectations for the Federal Reserve to end interest rate hikes early or even start cutting rates. In theory, this is bullish for all risk assets, but in practice, the crypto market and stock market respond very differently.

The fundamental reason lies in the differences in capital characteristics. Participants in the crypto market are predominantly short-term speculative funds, which react quickly to policy expectation changes. Once they catch signals of "rate cuts," they rapidly position themselves, pushing prices up swiftly. In contrast, institutional long-term funds constitute a larger proportion of the stock market; they do not hurriedly adjust their positions based on a single data fluctuation, instead focusing more on corporate fundamentals and overall economic trends. Although the weak non-farm data has raised expectations for rate cuts, the actual impact on stock valuations and corporate earnings still requires further observation. This cautious attitude results in a more moderate response from the stock market.

This contrast precisely illustrates the current market structure—crypto assets are priced largely based on short-term sentiment fluctuations, while traditional asset markets are relatively rational and lagging. Understanding this difference helps to better grasp the actual trends of different markets within the macro cycle.