2025-12-26 13:23:00

Since the third quarter of this year, it has been evident that upstream raw material prices have been rising. This upward pricing pressure has gradually transmitted to the midstream industry, forming a clear chain. Based on this trend, deflation next year may truly come to an end.

Another key point to observe is—will the real estate market bottom out? This question is actually very critical. If the real estate market truly bottoms out, the entire economic cycle can be stimulated, and a major turning point should be approaching. As an important pillar of the economy, the trend of real estate often signals a recovery in the entire industrial chain.

This is a judgment about the economy next year; compare it at the end of the year to see if the current idea is accurate.

View Original

This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.

11 Likes

Reward
11
5
Repost
Share

Comment

0/400

nft_widow

· 6h ago

The wave of raw material price increases, I can see clearly, but I'm worried that the transmission chain might break. As for the bottoming out of the real estate market, to be honest, I think we need to wait a bit longer. Alright, let's note this judgment for now and see the true situation at the end of the year. In fact, for deflation to truly end, it depends on how consumption behaves; just upstream price hikes are not enough. If the real estate market truly stabilizes, that would be a significant signal, but the prerequisite is that policies need to keep up. It's an interesting logical chain, but whether next year will follow the script remains to be seen.

View OriginalReply0

RugPullSurvivor

· 6h ago

I'm tired of hearing about raw material price hikes; the key is whether the real estate bubble can be filled or not. Real estate is bottomless every day; everything else is pointless. Anyway, I don't believe it. Looking back at the end of the year, I bet this guy will change his tune again for 5 bucks. I'm just worried that by then, it'll be the usual excuse of "market changes."

View OriginalReply0

TheMemefather

· 6h ago

The supply chain for raw material price increases is indeed clear, but the prediction that the real estate market has bottomed out still feels a bit too optimistic. Wait, can deflation really reverse next year? That's a bit uncertain. The real estate trap doesn't seem that easy to climb out of. To put it nicely, the key still depends on whether the real estate market can truly stabilize; otherwise, it's all just empty talk. At the end of the year, let's compare again; by then, there will be a bunch of new reasons to explain why the predictions were off. The signal of raw material price increases is real, but will the economic cycle pick up? I'll take your word for it first.

View OriginalReply0

LiquidityHunter

· 6h ago

The increase in raw material prices is indeed quite noticeable, but I'm worried that the transmission chain to the consumer end might get stuck again. As for the bottoming out of the real estate market, I think we should wait a bit longer and not be too optimistic. Let's just mark this prediction for now and see the real results at the end of the year. We'll review it then to see how accurate it was.

View OriginalReply0

ForkTongue

· 6h ago

We have indeed felt the increase in raw material prices, but it remains to be seen when it will be passed on to the consumer end. The real estate market will only be considered truly bottomed out when it actually hits the bottom; it's still too early to tell now. The pressure from raw material price increases is significant; let's see if it can really pick up next year. This set of logic sounds good, but I'm worried it's just theoretical. If the real estate market doesn't bottom out, everything else is pointless. A clear price increase chain is clear, but when will the consumer side finally get a breather? Will deflation truly end next year? I feel it's still early. The core is the real estate sector; everything else is just floating clouds.

View OriginalReply0