New Interpretation of Bitcoin Bull Market Cycle: A Historical Pattern Perspective from Institutional Breakthroughs in 2024

Bitcoin demonstrates a unique upward trend in 2024-25. As of November 2024, BTC has surged past the $93,000 mark, far exceeding the $40,000 starting point at the beginning of the year, representing a 132% increase. This bull run in the crypto market not only sets new all-time highs but also marks the true beginning of an era where institutional capital fully enters the market.

Unlike previous rallies driven by retail enthusiasm, the current market momentum is primarily institutional: in January 2024, the US SEC approved a spot Bitcoin ETF, attracting over $2.8 billion in inflows within just a few months. The continuous accumulation by giants like BlackRock, MicroStrategy, and others has thoroughly rewritten Bitcoin’s supply side—large amounts of BTC are locked in institutional wallets, significantly tightening market circulation.

How Institutional Innovation Reshapes Market Dynamics

Latest data shows that the total assets under management for global Bitcoin ETFs have surpassed those of gold ETFs. What does this critical point mean? An asset once questioned by regulators and dismissed by traditional finance has now gained an “orthodox” status comparable to gold.

The backdrop of this institutional shift is clear. By the end of 2024, changes in the US political landscape have laid the groundwork for pro-crypto policies, with proposals even emerging to include Bitcoin in the national strategic reserves. Ideas once considered taboo just months ago are now entering legislative agendas. Meanwhile, El Salvador and Bhutan have already taken action—Bhutan, through its national investment company, has accumulated over 13,000 BTC, becoming one of the top government holders globally.

The Patterns of Past Bull Markets and How This One Differs

Let’s revisit the three major Bitcoin rallies to understand what makes 2024 unique.

2013: The Grassroots Awakening

In 2013, BTC soared from $145 in May to $1,200 in December, a 730% increase. What drove this rally? The Cyprus banking crisis prompted people to explore decentralized assets, and it was also a collective discovery by internet communities—a form of money beyond central bank control.

However, this era was fragile. Security breaches at Mt. Gox led to a market crash, and in 2014, BTC fell below $300, nearly returning to the starting point.

2017: Retail Mass Frenzy

From $1,000 to nearly $20,000, a 1,900% surge, seemed astronomical at the time. The ICO boom, media hype, FOMO—this bull market was driven by retail investors, ultimately collapsing as retail profits were realized. In early 2018, BTC plummeted 84%, plunging the entire market into a bear phase lasting over two years.

2020-2021: The Institutional First Step

From $8,000 to $64,000 (and later touching $69,000), a 700% increase, was underpinned by qualitative change—public companies like MicroStrategy, Tesla, Square began purchasing BTC as part of their asset allocation. Bitcoin evolved from a “geek toy” to a “financial asset.”

The Bitcoin halving cycle also played a key role. The halving event every four years compresses supply; after the 2020 halving, new supply sharply decreased, creating a “scarcity premium.” Historically, the 2012 halving led to a 5,200% rise, 2016 halving to 315%, and 2020 halving to 230%. While the pattern has weakened, it still exists.

2024-25: The Perfect Triad of Catalysts

Currently, this market is driven by three major catalysts:

First, ETF access. Investors no longer need to risk managing private keys themselves; they can gain exposure through traditional brokers. This simplified process releases institutional demand constrained by regulation.

Second, the halving event. The April 2024 halving reaffirms this cyclical pattern, with supply pressure and price expectations forming a positive feedback loop.

Third, the political cycle. The new government’s pro-crypto stance is no longer a joke but a real policy possibility. Discussions about a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve have moved from dreams to proposals.

What’s the result? In November, the monthly increase was only 1.33%, but this “moderate” phase indicates the market has entered an institutional pricing stage—not soaring wildly but climbing steadily.

The True Meaning of On-Chain Signals

From blockchain data, the current phase’s uniqueness lies in:

The number of addresses holding coins has reached 55.1 million, a new high. But the proportion of large holders (whale wallets) has increased, indicating wealth concentration in institutions. Exchange reserves of BTC continue to decline, meaning more people prefer long-term holding over trading. The inflow of stablecoins into exchanges has hit new highs, showing market participants have ample ammunition but are not aggressively buying—this reflects a mature market.

The Next Key Timeline

The fifth Bitcoin halving is expected around 2028. Before then, what can we anticipate?

On the technical side, activation of scaling solutions like OP_CAT could enable Bitcoin to support more complex smart contracts, attracting DeFi applications migrating over. Upgrading from a simple “store of value” to a “computing platform” will greatly expand its application scenarios.

On the policy front, more countries may follow El Salvador’s example, incorporating Bitcoin into foreign exchange reserves. Once the US federal government makes an official purchase, it’s only a matter of time before other central banks follow suit.

Market-wise, Bitcoin’s correlation with gold will continue to decline—it’s not gold 2.0 but an independent asset class. This means that during periods of global economic uncertainty, Bitcoin may perform independently or even inversely.

Risks That Cannot Be Ignored

However, optimistic scenarios also have vulnerabilities.

High leverage among retail traders could trigger flash crashes. Although institutions are now the main force, retail FOMO can still cause sharp volatility at times. Since November, BTC has increased by only 1.33%, but intraday volatility remains close to $2,500.

Regulatory risks persist long-term. Even with a friendly political environment, any security breach or market manipulation allegations could trigger new investigations.

Environmental concerns, though diminished, have not disappeared. The tension between ESG funds entering the space and mining environmental issues remains unresolved.

Competition from platform coins like Ethereum is also a factor. Once Layer-2 solutions mature, Ethereum’s functional advantages could divert institutional funds away from Bitcoin.

How to Prepare for the Next Market Cycle

For investors, the following points are worth considering:

Monitor key events. Halving cycles, government policies, major ETF approvals, security incidents—these are market inflection points.

Diversify risk. Don’t go all-in on Bitcoin. Even with a bullish outlook, allocate to other cryptocurrencies and traditional assets.

Use reputable channels. Participate through licensed exchanges like Gate.io, Coinbase, rather than OTC or small platforms.

Understand your risk tolerance. Bitcoin’s volatility, though reduced, remains much higher than traditional assets. Short-term arbitrage and long-term holding strategies differ significantly.

Learn technical analysis. Indicators like RSI, MACD, Bollinger Bands are not crystal balls but help identify overbought/oversold extremes.

Conclusion: Cycles and Reality

Bitcoin’s history is a history of breakthroughs within cycles. From the $1,200 high in 2013, to $20,000 in 2017, to $69,000 in 2021, each was heralded as the “end”—and each was considered “impossible to go higher” by the public.

Now, at $93,000, there’s still 35% room to the previous ATH. Where will the next extreme be? $120,000? $150,000? No one can predict accurately.

But what’s certain is that this bull run in the crypto market is not a replay of traditional speculation but a continuation of financial institutionalization. Against this backdrop, Bitcoin’s long-term position is already established. Short-term fluctuations are just noise. For prepared investors, understanding these cycles and respecting these risks is the true path to wealth.