Cryptocurrency Bull Market Cycle Breakdown: A Panoramic View of Bitcoin Trends from 2013 to 2025

Current Situation: Bitcoin Fluctuating Near All-Time Highs

Latest data shows that Bitcoin’s current price hovers around $88.70K, down approximately 30% from its all-time high of $126.08K. This correction has not shattered market expectations for a crypto bull run—institutional investors, ETF inflows, and the halving cycle continue to be the core drivers supporting Bitcoin’s medium- to long-term trend.

Many ask: When will the next bull market arrive? To answer this, we need to understand the historical patterns of Bitcoin’s bull runs.

What Defines a True Crypto Bull Market?

Three main features of a crypto bull run:

1. Sustained rapid price growth — Achieving multiple or even tenfold increases in a short period
2. Fundamentally driven — Not just hype, but backed by real factors like halving, institutional entry, and friendly regulation
3. Market sentiment reversal — Surge in trading volume, new money entering, and social media buzz

Unlike traditional stock markets, Bitcoin bull markets tend to be more volatile, but this volatility creates the potential for astonishing wealth effects in a short time.

Bitcoin Halving: A Supply Shock Every Four Years

Understanding crypto bull markets requires understanding the Bitcoin halving event. Approximately every four years, Bitcoin’s mining reward is cut by 50%, directly reducing the inflow of new supply.

Post-halving price increases:

• 2012 halving: +5200%
• 2016 halving: +315%
• 2020 halving: +230%

The logic is simple—reduced supply, demand stable or increasing, scarcity rises, and prices go up. That’s why halving events always become focal points in the market.

2013: Bitcoin’s First Major Mainstream Test

Key data:

• Price soared from $145 in May to $1,200 in December, a 730% increase
• This was Bitcoin’s first bull market gaining widespread attention

Driving factors:

• Cyprus banking crisis, investors seeking alternative assets
• Media coverage surged, tech enthusiasts flooded in
• Infrastructure began to mature

Major setback:

• Mt. Gox exchange collapsed in 2014 due to security issues, handling about 70% of Bitcoin transactions at the time
• This crisis caused a 75% price drop and served as a reminder of the importance of infrastructure security

Though the bear market after 2013 was painful, this bull run established Bitcoin as a “digital asset,” laying the foundation for future development.

2017: Retail Investors’ Frenzy

Key data:

• Price skyrocketed from $1,000 in January to $20,000 in December, a 1,900% increase
• Daily trading volume grew from less than $200 million to over $15 billion by year-end
• Subsequently, price fell from $20,000 to $3,200 by December 2018, an 84% decline

Unique aspects of this bull run:

• ICO boom: Many new projects raised funds via tokens, attracting retail investors
• Exchange facilitation: User-friendly platforms lowered entry barriers
• Media effect: Price surges became news, fueling FOMO

Market lessons:

• China banned ICOs and domestic crypto trading, triggering large sell-offs
• Global regulators began scrutinizing market manipulation risks
• Retail-led bull markets are prone to bubbles and sharper corrections

2017 solidified Bitcoin’s mainstream status but also exposed retail market risks.

2020-2021: The Institutional Era Begins

Key data:

• Price rose from $8,000 in January 2020 to $64,000 in April 2021, an 800% increase
• Then corrected to around $30,000, a 53% drop

Major change in this bull run—institutional entry:

• Companies like MicroStrategy allocated part of their balance sheets to Bitcoin
• By 2021, institutions held over 125,000 BTC, with inflows exceeding $10 billion
• Bitcoin futures and overseas ETFs received approval, providing regulated trading channels for institutions

New narrative: Bitcoin as “Digital Gold”

• COVID-19 brought economic uncertainty, large fiscal stimuli fueled inflation expectations
• Institutions viewed Bitcoin as an inflation hedge
• This narrative’s power far exceeds that of “technological innovation,” as it connects to core financial logic

Risks:

• Growing environmental concerns (Bitcoin mining energy consumption)
• Increased regulation (SEC scrutiny dampening institutional enthusiasm)

2020-2021 marked Bitcoin’s shift from retail-driven to institution-driven markets.

2024 to Present: ETF Approvals and Halving’s Dual Impact

Latest developments:

• January 2024: US SEC approved a spot Bitcoin ETF
• April 2024: Fourth Bitcoin halving occurred
• ETF inflows exceeded $28 billion (far surpassing gold ETFs)
• Bitcoin price rose from $40,000 at the start of the year to over $93,000, then corrected to $88.70K

Why is this bull market different?

1. Revolutionary significance of ETFs — Traditional institutions and retirement funds can now allocate Bitcoin via standard financial products, avoiding custody and regulatory complexities
2. Supply shock from halving — The fourth halving directly reduces new Bitcoin supply
3. Policy expectations — Optimism about pro-crypto policies attracts incremental capital
4. National reserves — Bhutan accumulated over 13,000 BTC; El Salvador continues to invest; US lawmakers proposed the “Bitcoin Act” to purchase 1 million BTC

Current challenges:

• Volatility risk: High levels can trigger profit-taking and leverage amplifies swings
• FOMO traps: Retail investors may chase high prices, increasing risk
• Macroeconomic factors: Interest rate changes, recession risks may shift capital flows
• Regulatory uncertainty: Global regulatory frameworks are still evolving
• Market saturation: As Bitcoin’s market cap grows, achieving similar percentage gains becomes harder

How to Identify Bull Market Signals?

Technical indicators:

• RSI (Relative Strength Index) breaks above 50
• MACD bullish crossover
• Price moves above key moving averages

On-chain data:

• Increase in stablecoin balances (new capital entering)
• Bitcoin reserves on exchanges decline (accumulation)
• Rising number of active wallets

Macro factors:

• Continuous ETF net inflows
• Regulatory environment becomes more friendly
• Halving cycle approaches
• Inflation expectations rise

How to Prepare for the Next Bull Market?

1. Understand fundamentals, not just chase gains

• Study Bitcoin whitepaper to grasp its value proposition
• Analyze historical bull cycles to identify patterns
• Avoid being driven solely by short-term news and emotions

2. Develop a clear investment plan

• Define your risk tolerance and investment horizon
• Diversify your portfolio; avoid all-in on a single asset
• Set reasonable stop-loss levels

3. Choose secure and reputable trading platforms

• Check platform security audits
• Enable two-factor authentication (2FA)
• Verify regulatory licenses and risk controls

4. Long-term holding is better than frequent trading

• Use hardware wallets for cold storage
• Enable withdrawal whitelists, 2FA, and other security features
• Avoid leaving large amounts of funds on exchanges long-term

5. Stay informed but remain rational

• Follow trusted news sources
• Monitor regulatory changes
• Avoid emotional decisions; stick to your strategy

6. Prepare for tax planning

• Understand local crypto tax laws
• Record transaction dates, amounts, and purposes
• Plan tax reporting in advance

The Future of Bitcoin Bull Markets: Three Emerging Trends

1. Accelerated national adoption The proposed “Bitcoin Act” in the US suggests the Treasury will buy 1 million BTC within five years. Bhutan and El Salvador have already taken action. If more countries follow, Bitcoin’s status as “Digital Gold” will be officially recognized.

2. Explosion of Bitcoin Layer-2 ecosystem Upgrades like OP_CAT (pending approval) will enable Bitcoin to support rollups and other Layer-2 solutions, achieving thousands of transactions per second, paving the way for DeFi applications. This will significantly expand Bitcoin’s use cases beyond just a store of value.

3. Continuous innovation in institutional products Following the success of spot ETFs, derivatives like Bitcoin options ETFs and Bitcoin mutual funds will be launched, further lowering barriers for institutional participation.

When Will the Bitcoin Bull Market Truly Start?

While exact timing is hard to predict, based on historical patterns, key indicators include:

• Halving cycle — The next halving is expected around 2028, but markets often rally six months to a year before
• ETF inflow trends — Continuous net inflows are positive signals; net outflows warrant caution
• Macro environment — Rising inflation and falling interest rates generally favor Bitcoin
• Policy breakthroughs — National recognition and regulatory friendliness can accelerate the bull run

Core understanding: Bitcoin’s crypto bull run is not random; it is driven by multiple factors including supply cycles, institutional demand, macroeconomic conditions, and policy environment. Understanding these factors helps you better anticipate market movements.

Bitcoin has evolved from a fringe asset to a mainstream financial instrument, transforming from a playground for retail traders to a tool for institutional asset allocation. The next bull market is not a question of “if” but “how to seize it.” Are you ready?