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The recent eight consecutive days of positive performance in the A-shares market are indeed quite impressive. The market did not break new highs in the afternoon but held steady at the morning's closing price, ultimately forming a beautiful pattern of eight consecutive days of gains. Behind this is the concerted effort of domestic capital, which also marks the official start of the year-end rally. Looking at historical data, after the last eight-day winning streak, the market was only eight days away from rising from 3,600 to 3,800. What's even more interesting this time is that this round of rally was achieved without foreign capital participation, which is enough to demonstrate how strong the intrinsic momentum of the A-shares market truly is.
Now, a question many retail investors face is—how can they avoid the vicious cycle of chasing highs and selling lows, while still capturing such opportunities? To answer this, first, we need to understand the main investment schools in today’s world.
Globally, top investors can roughly be divided into four categories. The first is macro speculative investors, represented by Soros, whose expertise lies in catching trend turning points. The second is value hedge investors, with Ray Dalio as a benchmark, employing all-weather hedging strategies. The third is quantitative technology-driven investors, like Jim Simons, who pioneered a field using mathematical models and high-frequency trading. The fourth is the well-known value investing school, with Warren Buffett as a master, whose principle is to hold high-quality companies long-term and conduct in-depth fundamental analysis.
For retail investors, the first two categories are too high a threshold. Quantitative tech strategies require capital and technical resources that are not accessible to ordinary individuals. Macro speculation also has limited room to survive in the A-shares market, as short-selling is restricted. Therefore, theoretically, the most suitable approach for retail investors is the fourth—value investing.
However, blindly copying the traditional value investing approach doesn’t work well in the A-shares market either. Why? Because retail investors face two practical dilemmas. First, most retail investors lack the ability to accurately understand a company's true fundamentals and growth prospects, so their core logic of value buying and selling is often only half-understood. Second, retail investors generally have weaker risk resistance. When value and price diverge over the long term, few can truly withstand the psychological pressure. For example, a loss of 100,000 yuan might leave some calm, while others could be severely shaken.
Therefore, it’s necessary to adapt traditional value investing to the local context. The best approach is to integrate the characteristics of the first and fourth schools—using a macro perspective to catch trend turning points, while anchoring on fundamentals to determine value. I summarize this investment model with four characters: Trend is King.
Trend is King does not mean short-term chasing of highs and lows, nor passive holding through fundamental analysis alone. Its core is trend timing, combined with stop-loss and take-profit tools, and using fundamentals to ensure a bottom line of value. This approach can avoid the weakness of retail investors being unable to endure long-term oscillations, while leveraging the long-term slow bull market to maximize returns.
How to operate specifically? It involves four steps.
Step 1: Learn to analyze fundamentals. Understand basic indicators like P/E ratio, P/B ratio. Then focus on core data such as return on equity, net profit growth rate, and also study the company's development blueprint, cash flow situation, and even the founder’s vision and character. If these are clear, then look at industry prosperity to judge whether the company has the potential to become a leader.
Step 2: Identify trends. Work backwards from macro to micro—first observe policy and industry trends, then examine industry growth, capacity, and order balance. Achieving this allows you to naturally spot trend turning points and assess whether the company in your hand is truly a high-quality enterprise.
Step 3: Strict discipline. Stop-loss and take-profit should be anchored in the long-term logic of fundamentals, while intermediate buy/sell points are determined by technical analysis. This way, you avoid rigidity and chaos.
Step 4: Monthly review. Regularly check whether fundamentals and trends still align. If you find a serious divergence between value and price, judge whether it’s a short-term emotional fluctuation or if speculative capital is starting to seek profits. Based on the review, adjust your position dynamically while keeping the core holdings unchanged. This ensures decision consistency and continuous adaptation to the core idea of Trend is King.
In summary, this methodology is not about complex theories but about combining macro perspective and fundamental research, executed with disciplined practical operations. For retail investors aiming to break free from chasing highs and lows and achieve long-term stable returns, this approach might be more realistic.