Bitcoin Bull Market Cycle Analysis: From Historical Patterns to the New Era of 2024-25

Current Bitcoin Market Status and Bull Market Initiation Timing

As of December 2025, Bitcoin price hovers around $88.65K, with a 24-hour increase of +1.33%, still room below the all-time high of $126.08K. This timing is particularly important for understanding when Bitcoin will start its bull run — the market is currently in a critical accumulation phase, with multiple catalysts converging.

Since its inception in 2009, Bitcoin has experienced four distinct bull and bear cycles, each driven by unique factors. To judge when the next bull market will begin, we need to review historical patterns and pay attention to current market signals.

The Essence of a Bull Market: Supply Constraints and Emotional Resonance

The formation of a Bitcoin bull market is not accidental. Ultimately, it is the inevitable result of continuous supply reduction and growing demand.

The most direct supply constraint comes from the four-year halving events. Each halving reduces the BTC rewards for miners by half, significantly slowing new coin issuance, mathematically creating scarcity. Historical data shows:

• After 2012 halving: BTC increased by 5,200%
• After 2016 halving: BTC increased by 315%
• After 2020 halving: BTC increased by 230%
• After April 2024 halving: current gains have exceeded 100%

Halving cycles are Bitcoin’s “biological clock,” and the 2024 halving has already occurred, indicating that supply-side constraints are now in effect.

2013-2021: The Evolution Logic of Three Bull Markets

2013: The First Wave of Retail Awakening

Bitcoin soared from $145 to $1,200, a 730% increase. The driving force was: the Cyprus banking crisis made investors realize Bitcoin’s value as “digital gold,” coupled with media-driven FOMO.

However, this bull market ended with the Mt. Gox exchange being hacked, causing a 70% volume wipeout. The lesson: bull markets tend to end abruptly at their most euphoric moments.

2017: ICO Bubble and Retail Entry

2017 was dubbed the “全民币圈” year. Bitcoin jumped from $1,000 to $20,000, a 1,900% increase. The story behind it includes:

• The explosion of ICOs attracting millions of retail investors
• Improved exchange accessibility (more platforms launched)
• Daily media bombardment

Daily trading volume surged from $200 million at the start of the year to $15 billion by year-end. But early 2018, Chinese regulators banned ICOs and domestic exchanges, triggering an 84% crash. The biggest lesson from this bull run: policy risk is the greatest black swan.

2020-2021: The Institutional Era Begins

2020 marked a watershed moment. It was no longer a retail game.

Major companies like MicroStrategy, Tesla, Square started including Bitcoin in their asset allocations. By April 2021, Bitcoin rose from $8,000 to $64,000, a 700% increase. At this point, institutional holdings exceeded 125,000 BTC, with over $10 billion in institutional inflows.

The uniqueness of this bull market lies in: traditional financial systems began to recognize Bitcoin. This changed the game — from a “revolutionary anti-establishment asset” to “a part of traditional portfolios.”

2024-25: Repetition of History or a New Pattern?

The current situation differs from the previous three cycles, with four new variables rewriting the rules:

1. Spot ETF: The Highway for Institutional Entry

In January 2024, the US SEC approved the first Bitcoin spot ETFs. This is a milestone.

By November 2024, over $4.5 billion had flowed into Bitcoin ETFs. BlackRock’s IBIT ETF alone holds 467,000 BTC. The total BTC held across all Bitcoin ETF ecosystems exceeds 1 million coins.

What does this mean? Institutions no longer need to open crypto exchange accounts or manage private keys themselves. They can simply click a few buttons within familiar trading platforms to gain Bitcoin exposure. This reduces friction for institutional participation.

2. Cumulative Effect of Halving Cycles

After the April 2024 halving, Bitcoin’s annual supply growth rate dropped from 1.7% to 0.85%. This figure is even lower than gold’s annual production.

Meanwhile, companies like MicroStrategy continued to significantly increase their holdings in 2024 — not selling, but adding. This indicates that the amount of sellable BTC in liquidity is decreasing.

3. Macroeconomic Policy Shift Signals

The new US administration has adopted a more crypto-friendly stance. Senator Cynthia Lummis proposed the “BITCOIN Act,” suggesting the US Treasury acquire 1 million BTC over five years as strategic reserves.

Although the bill’s passage remains uncertain, it sends a signal: government levels are beginning to consider Bitcoin’s strategic value.

In comparison, El Salvador has adopted Bitcoin as legal tender, and Bhutan holds over 13,000 BTC through a sovereign fund. If more countries follow suit, demand-side will see a qualitative leap.

4. Expectations of Technical Upgrades

The upcoming OP_CAT upgrade in Bitcoin could enable Layer 2 scaling solutions, increasing transaction speed from the current 7 TPS to thousands. This will open doors for DeFi, NFTs, and other applications.

Although still in testing, the market is already pricing this in — technological expectations themselves are a form of demand.

Four Key Signals of a Bull Market

How to determine if the next wave of a genuine bull market has started? Focus on these four indicators:

Signal 1: Abnormal On-Chain Activity

• Increase in active wallet addresses: new addresses often mark the start of new demand
• Increase in exchange outflows: holders prefer cold wallets over short-term trading
• Stablecoin inflows into exchanges: “ammunition” for buying

Currently, active Bitcoin addresses are still rising, indicating new participants are entering.

Signal 2: Technical Triple Confirmation

• RSI: above 70 indicates strong upward momentum
• Moving Averages: price breaking above 50-day and 200-day MA
• Volume Confirmation: breakout accompanied by volume surge

By late 2024, Bitcoin’s RSI once exceeded 70, and the 200-day MA was trending upward — all positive signs.

Signal 3: Macro Environment Support

• Interest rate environment: low rates favor risk assets
• Inflation expectations: high inflation boosts Bitcoin’s appeal as a hedge
• Geopolitical uncertainties: crises increase demand for safe assets

The current global environment remains inflationary, which is bullish for Bitcoin.

Signal 4: Expansion of Institutional Holdings

• Growth in ETF holdings
• Increasing participation by listed companies
• Involvement of pension funds and long-term institutional investors

These are signs of “smart money” entering.

Timing Window for Bull Market Initiation

Based on historical patterns and current signals, the next significant bull market may start around these timeframes:

Short-term (next 3-6 months): If policy news is favorable (e.g., US government officially announces Bitcoin reserve plans) or more countries adopt Bitcoin, a rally could be triggered directly.

Mid-term (6-12 months): Completion of OP_CAT upgrade broadens Bitcoin’s application prospects, attracting new institutional investors. Coupled with the ongoing supply constraints post-halving, upward pressure will gradually build.

Long-term (1-2 years): The next halving is expected around 2028. Historically, 6-12 months before halving is the start of a bull run. So, 2027-2028 could be the next major cycle.

Common Risks and Traps in a Bull Market

Trap 1: Timing Failures

Even if you anticipate a bull market, pinpointing the exact entry point is difficult. In 2024, Bitcoin twice surged to $93,000, then retraced to $85,000. Many got caught at the top.

Advice: Don’t try perfect timing; dollar-cost averaging (DCA) is more practical.

Trap 2: Leverage Backfire

During bull markets, traders using 20x or 50x leverage are common. But history shows each major rally is followed by rapid liquidations — negative news or technical pullbacks can trigger chain reactions.

In November 2024, such a liquidation event wiped out billions in long positions.

Advice: If you cannot tolerate 100% loss, avoid leverage.

Trap 3: Ignoring Volatility

Bitcoin’s daily volatility is usually 2-5%, but during key events, it can reach 15-20%. Many new investors overestimate their psychological resilience.

A move from $93,000 to $85,000 is an 8% drop, but with 10x leverage, that’s an 80% loss.

Advice: Set reasonable stop-loss points; don’t be greedy.

Trap 4: Asymmetric Information

Retail investors always receive information slower than institutions. When you discuss “Bitcoin is about to take off” on forums, institutional investors have already been quietly accumulating for weeks. When mainstream media hype Bitcoin, it’s often the last phase — danger is near.

Advice: Focus on on-chain data rather than headlines.

How to Prepare for the Next Bull Market

Step 1: Clarify Your Role

• Long-term holders: focus on fundamentals, buy regularly, hold at least 4 years
• Mid-term traders: monitor technicals, buy at key supports, reduce at resistances
• Short-term speculators: follow market sentiment, but require strong psychology and risk control

Most retail investors should be in the first category.

Step 2: Choose the Right Entry Timing

Not necessarily waiting for the absolute top, but consider adding positions when:

• Bitcoin diverges from gold (gold rising, BTC falling)
• On-chain data shows accumulation rather than selling
• Institutional ETF inflows continue
• Fear & Greed Index hits extreme fear levels

Step 3: Select Safe Storage Methods

• Small amounts: use exchange wallets (convenient but slightly riskier)
• Medium amounts: hardware wallets (secure, slightly cumbersome)
• Large amounts: multi-signature cold wallets (most secure, requires expertise)

The Mt. Gox incident in 2013 and the FTX collapse in 2022 teach us: if you don’t hold your private keys, you don’t truly own your coins.

Step 4: Develop an Exit Strategy

Often overlooked, many people get greedy when making profits, waiting for the “absolute top” to sell, only to get caught.

Recommended approach:

• When reaching the first target, sell 10% (lock in some profit)
• When reaching the second target, sell 20% (reduce exposure further)
• For the remaining, set stop-loss or hold long-term

This way, even if your judgment is off, you won’t lose everything.

Real-Time Market Signal Interpretation as of December 2025

Bitcoin’s signals are currently neutral to slightly bullish:

Positive signals:

• Price remains at $88.65K, not breaking the previous high of $93K, indicating the downtrend isn’t fully over
• 24-hour volume at $863.89M, moderate level, no panic selling
• Market sentiment at 50:50, buyers and sellers are balanced, leaving room for upward movement

Negative signals:

• Still 30% below the all-time high of $126.08K, indicating upward momentum isn’t strong enough
• 1-year return at -10.80%, showing no new long-term highs

Conclusion: The market is in a consolidation phase, not the best time for full-position entry, but suitable for gradual accumulation.

The Inevitability of Bitcoin Bull Cycles

From the supply side, Bitcoin’s bull market is cyclical and inevitable:

• Fixed supply: only 21 million coins
• Halving cycles: supply growth rate halves every four years
• Increasing demand: more institutions, countries, and individuals participate

These factors ensure that as long as demand continues to rise, the long-term trend will be upward. Short-term volatility is normal, but the long-term direction is clear.

The uniqueness of 2024-2025 lies in the convergence of policy support, technological breakthroughs, institutional entry, and supply constraints — a rare combination. Therefore, this cycle’s upside potential may surpass previous cycles.

Final Advice

If you haven’t entered yet: don’t rush; gradual deployment is safer. Add on dips during weaker periods (e.g., Fear & Greed <30), reduce during overheated phases (>70).

If you are already in: avoid chasing highs. Set stop-loss and profit targets, be patient. History shows the highest profits often go to those who hold firm.

If you prefer to wait: no regrets. Bitcoin’s bull cycle is cyclical, and the next wave will come. The key is not to panic and chase after missed opportunities — that’s how losses happen.

Remember: The best investment opportunities always come from moments of neglect and fear, not during the crowd’s climax.