How Many Price Surges Has Bitcoin Gone Through? Market Cycles and What We Can Learn

Since its inception in 2009, Bitcoin has continuously written optimistic chapters in the history of the cryptocurrency market. Not always at a peak, but each Bitcoin rally carries valuable lessons for investors. So, how long does a cryptocurrency bull run typically last? And what factors truly trigger these explosive price surges?

What Is a Bitcoin Bull Run and How Long Does It Last?

A Bitcoin bull run is not a random event—it is the convergence of multiple factors: technology, investor psychology, market acceptance, and macroeconomic cycles. When it comes to how long a Bitcoin rally lasts, the answer depends on what triggers it.

Historically, Bitcoin bull runs tend to last from 12 to 18 months, though there are exceptions. The 2017 rally lasted nearly 2 years, while the 2020-2021 rally developed over approximately 16 months. Currently, we are witnessing a strong rally in 2024-2025 after Bitcoin hit $88.58K—a 132% increase since the beginning of 2024.

Indicators Showing an Ongoing Bull Run

To determine whether Bitcoin is in a bull phase, investors should monitor three types of signals:

1. Technical Indicators

• RSI (Relative Strength Index) exceeds 70, indicating strong buying momentum
• Price breaks above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages
• Trading volume spikes, often doubling or tripling normal levels

2. On-Chain Data

• Sudden increase in wallet activity
• Inflows of stablecoins into exchanges rise sharply
• Bitcoin holdings on exchanges decrease—indicating accumulation by investors

3. Macroeconomic Factors

• Approval of new financial products like Bitcoin ETFs
• Regulatory policy changes favoring cryptocurrencies
• Growing interest from major financial institutions

The Four Major Bitcoin Bull Phases in History

2013: The First Bull Run—From $145 Lên $1,200 (+730%)

2013 marked Bitcoin’s media breakout. Price surged from around $145 in May to nearly $1,200 in December. That’s an 8-fold increase in less than 8 months.

Main Catalysts:

• Cyprus banking crisis drove investors to seek safe havens
• Media coverage of Bitcoin began, creating the first FOMO effect
• Public awareness grew that Bitcoin exists, and prices followed

Challenges: In 2014, the largest exchange Mt. Gox—handling 70% of Bitcoin transactions—was hacked and collapsed. Bitcoin dropped 75% from its peak, falling below $300. This event caused widespread distrust but also taught the world about the importance of exchange security.

2017: The ICO Boom—From $1,000 to $20,000 (+1,900%)

The 2017 rally was what investors call a “mania of speculation.” Bitcoin rose from $1,000 early in the year to nearly $20,000 in December—20 times in just one year.

Driving Forces:

• ICO (Initial Coin Offering) craze—new projects raised funds by issuing tokens
• User-friendly exchanges launched, making Bitcoin accessible to anyone
• National media coverage increased, fueling psychological feedback loops

However… In 2018, the bear market persisted. Bitcoin fell from $20,000 to just $3,200—a decline of 84%. The Chinese government banned ICOs and domestic exchanges, triggering massive sell-offs.

2020-2021: The Institutional Era—From $8,000 to $64,000 (+700%)

The 2020-2021 rally was different because big players entered the scene. MicroStrategy, Tesla, and other major companies began buying Bitcoin as part of their balance sheet strategies.

Prices rose from around $8,000 in early 2020 to over $64,000 in April 2021. Lasted about 16 months.

Why Did Institutions Care?

• Rising inflation, zero-interest rate cash flows from central banks
• Bitcoin seen as “digital gold”—a hedge against currency devaluation
• Publicly traded companies like MicroStrategy hold over 125,000 BTC

Correction: From $64,000, Bitcoin dropped to $30,000 in July 2021 (-53%), but remained well above 2020 levels.

2024-2025: The ETF Era—From $40,000 to $88,000+ (+132%)

The approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) in January 2024 marked a milestone. For the first time, institutional investors can access Bitcoin through familiar financial products.

Impressive Numbers:

• Since January 2024, capital flows into Bitcoin ETFs have exceeded (billion USD) compared to $4.5 billion last November$28
• BlackRock holds over 467,000 BTC via the IBIT fund
• Bitcoin hit $126.08K—a new all-time high

This rally is supported by Bitcoin’s fourth halving in April 2024, reducing issuance rate and decreasing supply on the market.

Why Is Halving the Key to Triggering Bull Runs?

Every four years, Bitcoin undergoes a “halving”—the mining reward is cut in half. This reduces Bitcoin’s issuance rate from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC per block.

History shows halving events often trigger bull runs:

• 2012 Halving: Bitcoin surged 5,200% afterward
• 2016 Halving: Bitcoin increased by 315%
• 2020 Halving: Bitcoin rose 230%
• 2024 Halving: Bitcoin up 132% (so far)

Why? When supply decreases but demand remains high, prices tend to rise. Basic economics.

Regulatory and Policy Factors Increasing Confidence

Not just technology, but global policy decisions also play a crucial role. In 2024, the pro-cryptocurrency stance of the current U.S. administration has boosted optimism. The proposed BITCOIN 2024 Act, allowing the U.S. Treasury to buy up to 1 million BTC over five years, if passed, would be historic.

El Salvador adopted Bitcoin as legal tender in 2021, and Bhutan has accumulated over 13,000 BTC—these nations are using Bitcoin as a strategic reserve.

What Do Each Bull Run Teach Us?

2013: Bitcoin can survive, but infrastructure is weak.

2017: Retail interest is powerful, but regulation is also critical.

2020-2021: Major institutions accept Bitcoin as an asset, not just speculative players.

2024-2025: Bitcoin is becoming part of the traditional financial system.

When Will the Next Bull Run Occur?

No one can predict exactly, but investors should watch:

• Upcoming halving events (next halving in 2028)
• ETF capital flows and activity of large investors
• Regulatory developments in major countries
• On-chain data such as wallet activity and exchange balances

To prepare for the next rally, consider:

1. Educate yourself about Bitcoin and market cycles
2. Develop a clear investment strategy with specific goals
3. Choose a reliable trading platform with strong security
4. Store Bitcoin securely (hardware wallets for long-term holding)
5. Stay updated with reputable news sources
6. Diversify your portfolio to manage risk

Conclusion

Bitcoin has experienced at least four major bull runs since 2013, each offering different lessons. From early wild volatility, Bitcoin has evolved into a institutional asset. Currently, with prices at $88.58K and continuous ETF capital inflows, we may be in the early stages of a longer-lasting bull cycle.

The key to navigating crypto market cycles is understanding them, preparing for them, and most importantly, not letting psychology dictate decisions. A bull run can last more than 18 months or just 8 months—what matters is that you are ready.