Bitcoin Bull Market Cycle Evolution: Opportunities After the Last Major Crypto Bull from $88.59K

Since its inception in 2009, Bitcoin has experienced multiple grand price cycles. Currently, BTC is quoted at $88.59K, still below its all-time high of $126.08K, but this also suggests the market may be in the buildup phase for a new wave of growth. Looking back at each major surge, we can uncover patterns and catalysts hidden behind the numbers.

Current Bitcoin Market Context

As of the latest data, Bitcoin’s price is $88.59K, with a 24-hour increase of +1.21%, but a 1-year decline of -10.91%. This figure reflects the market’s real predicament—having retreated from the previous bull market peak. However, such adjustments often give rise to new opportunities.

Observing the current circulating market cap of $1768.98B and 55,106,626 active addresses, Bitcoin’s ecosystem foundation is stronger than ever. This is why more institutional investors and retail traders are asking: After the last crypto bull run, when will the next wave of growth arrive?

The New Era of 2024-25: ETF Approvals Change the Game

The recent bullish momentum was sparked by the U.S. SEC’s approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF in January 2024. This seemingly administrative decision actually opened the door for traditional finance to access crypto assets.

Key Data Comparison:

• Early 2024: Bitcoin around $40,000
• November 2024: Bitcoin hits $93,000
• Increase: +132%

More notably, capital flows tell a compelling story. By November 2024, cumulative net inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs exceeded $28B, far surpassing gold ETFs during the same period. BlackRock’s IBIT fund alone holds over 467,000 BTC, with companies like MicroStrategy continuing to increase holdings.

This cycle differs in that: It’s not retail frenzy but institutional positioning. This lays a foundation for Bitcoin’s long-term stability.

Four Templates of Past Bull Markets

2013: $145 to $1,200 First Leap

Bitcoin’s performance in 2013 was astonishing—rising from $145 in May to $1,200 in December, a 730% increase. The driving forces during this period included:

• Media Frenzy: Tech media widely covered Bitcoin
• Financial Crisis Backdrop: Cyprus banking crisis prompted investors to reconsider asset safety
• Infrastructure Maturity: Exchanges expanded, making purchases easier

But in 2014, Mt.Gox exchange was hacked and collapsed. This event caused Bitcoin to fall below $300, a drop of over 75%. Lesson learned: early markets lacked sufficient security protections.

2017: ICO Boom and Retail Frenzy

2017 was the year the public truly recognized Bitcoin. Starting from $1,000, it surged toward nearly $20,000, creating wealth stories that seemed unimaginable at the time.

This cycle’s uniqueness:

• ICO Explosion: New projects raised funds via token issuance, attracting millions of retail investors
• Exchange Expansion: Platforms made small investments accessible
• FOMO Sentiment: Social media flooded with stories of quick riches

But regulatory crackdowns followed. In early 2018, many countries tightened ICO regulations; China shut down domestic exchanges altogether. Bitcoin dropped from $20,000 to $3,200 (-84%), entering a two-year bear market.

This lesson shows: retail-led bull markets often lack fundamental support.

2020-2021: Institutional Entry Turning Point

This cycle’s importance cannot be overstated. From $8,000 to a peak of $64,000 (+700%), the driving forces fundamentally changed:

• MicroStrategy, Tesla, and other public companies began holding Bitcoin
• Payment giants like PayPal announced support for Bitcoin
• Liquidity flood during the pandemic: Central banks printed massive amounts of money, boosting all asset prices
• Rate cuts environment: Zero interest rates shifted investor focus to risk assets

In November 2021, Bitcoin reached $69,000. What’s different this time is that even after retracing to $30,000 (-53%), selling pressure was far less intense than in 2018. Why? Because institutions don’t chase highs and sell lows like retail traders.

Understanding the Halving Cycle: Bitcoin’s Internal Rhythm

A key factor throughout Bitcoin’s history is the halving—roughly every four years, Bitcoin’s mining reward is cut by 50%, directly limiting new supply.

Historical data shows this pattern:

• After 2012 halving: BTC surged 5,200%
• After 2016 halving: BTC surged 315%
• After 2020 halving: BTC surged 230%
• The 2024 April halving was followed by an 11-month rally of 132%

Halving creates a supply shock—when new coin issuance decreases while demand remains stable or increases, prices tend to rise. This is not hype but a fundamental economic law.

Technological Advances Expand Bitcoin’s Application Boundaries

An often overlooked factor is Bitcoin’s technological evolution. The potential revival of OP_CAT code could enable Bitcoin to process complex smart contracts and support Layer-2 scaling solutions.

What does this mean? Bitcoin may no longer be just a store of value but also a participant in DeFi. Imagine directly trading derivatives and lending products on Bitcoin without switching to other chains. This could significantly boost institutional demand.

Policy Support in the New Era

The political shifts in the U.S. in 2024 open new possibilities for crypto assets. Senator Cynthia Lummis proposed the Bitcoin Act of 2024, recommending the U.S. Treasury buy 1 million BTC over five years as a strategic national reserve.

While the bill’s passage remains uncertain, it signals: Bitcoin is shifting from a demonized asset to one taken seriously by mainstream policymakers.

Not only the U.S., but Bhutan’s state investment company has accumulated over 13,000 BTC, and El Salvador has adopted it as legal tender. Government-level recognition is shaping a new bull market foundation.

Signals for the Next Growth Cycle

Investors aiming to capitalize on Bitcoin’s next cycle should watch for key signals:

On-chain Data Indicators

• Decreasing Bitcoin balances on exchanges: indicating accumulation by institutions and retail
• Increasing stablecoin inflows into exchanges: showing buying strength
• Rising wallet activity: reflecting increased market participation

Technical Indicators

• RSI rebounding from oversold levels, often signaling reversal
• Golden cross formation of 50-day and 200-day moving averages
• Repeated support at key levels

Macro Environment

• Interest rate expectations: rate cuts generally favor Bitcoin
• Inflation data: high inflation boosts demand for store of value
• Geopolitical uncertainties: safe-haven capital inflows

Currently, Bitcoin at $88.59K has 43% upside potential to reach its ATH of $126.08K. Moreover, with a -10.91% one-year return, market sentiment remains not overly optimistic, often a characteristic of the early stages of a new bull market.

Preparing for the Next Cycle: Practical Guide

1. Choose a Secure and Reliable Trading Platform

The first step in trading Bitcoin is selecting a platform with a strong security record. A good exchange should offer:

• 2FA two-factor authentication
• Cold storage for major assets
• Regular security audits
• User-friendly interface

Platforms like Gate.io are widely used for their stability and diverse trading pairs. The key is to ensure your funds are protected from platform vulnerabilities.

2. Build a Diversified Portfolio

Don’t go all-in on Bitcoin. While Bitcoin is the flagship of crypto markets, diversification effectively reduces risk:

• Bitcoin: 40-50%
• Other major coins (Ethereum, Solana, etc.): 30-40%
• Stablecoins reserves: 10-20%

This allocation allows participation in Bitcoin’s bull while providing buffers during corrections.

3. Use Hardware Wallets for Long-term Holding

If your investment horizon exceeds one year, transferring assets to hardware wallets (Ledger, Trezor, etc.) is wise. Exchanges can be hacked or face policy risks, while hardware wallets are fully under your control.

4. Set Stop-Loss and Take-Profit Orders

Avoid decisions driven by emotions. Set reasonable stop-loss points (e.g., 20-30% decline) and take-profit targets (e.g., 100-200% increase), then stick to them. Market volatility tests your psychological resilience; systematic methods help prevent impulsive decisions.

5. Continuous Learning and Monitoring

Bitcoin markets change rapidly. Subscribe to reliable news sources, monitor on-chain data platforms, and participate in trading communities to quickly catch new signals.

6. Understand Tax Responsibilities

In most countries, profits from crypto trading are taxable. Keep detailed records of each transaction’s time, amount, and cost basis, and consult tax professionals in advance.

Risks Are Everywhere, But Opportunities Too

Bitcoin’s history shows every major bull market is followed by a bear market. The -84% in 2018 and -65% in 2022 are real events. But after each bear, Bitcoin’s user base, institutional recognition, and infrastructure become stronger.

Main risks include:

• Regulatory Uncertainty: Countries may tighten crypto restrictions
• Macroeconomic Shocks: Recessions could dampen risk asset demand
• Increased Competition: Other cryptos may divert capital
• Technical Risks: Although Bitcoin’s network has been validated for 13 years, upgrades may introduce unforeseen issues

However, these risks do not change a fundamental fact: Bitcoin’s supply is capped at 21 million coins, which determines its long-term scarcity and value. In an era of ongoing global money printing and debt accumulation, this scarcity becomes even more precious.

Final Thoughts

Asking “When will the next crypto bull market arrive?” is really asking “Should I enter now or wait?” But a smarter question is: “What have I done to prepare for the next cycle?”

If you haven’t started:

• Learn Bitcoin’s fundamentals and historical cycles
• Choose secure platforms
• Start accumulating small positions
• Develop a long-term plan rather than chasing short-term gains

If you already hold Bitcoin:

• Enhance risk management awareness
• Regularly review your investment thesis
• Consider adding small amounts during bear markets
• Prepare mentally for long-term holding

Bitcoin’s four major bull cycles follow a clear pattern: each is driven by a new catalyst (halving, institutional entry, policy support), each accompanied by volatility and risk, but each also solidifies Bitcoin’s position.

2024-2025 is at such a critical juncture. Regardless of when the “last crypto bull” truly begins, those who prepare well, manage risks, and stay disciplined will ultimately benefit from this cycle.