Bitcoin Bull Market Cycle Decoded: The Complete Path from $67 to New Highs

Bitcoin, as the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, has experienced several spectacular bull cycles since its inception in 2009. From an early surge from $145 to $1200, to the ICO frenzy in 2017, and then the institutional influx in 2020-2021, each bull run has brought significant changes to the market landscape. Currently, BTC is hovering around $88.56K, just a step away from its all-time high of $126.08K, and signals of a new upward cycle are already emerging.

What Drives Bitcoin’s Upward Cycles?

Bitcoin’s bull markets are often catalyzed by halving events, increased institutional recognition, and supportive policies. The halving mechanism occurs every four years, reducing miners’ rewards to create supply scarcity. Historical data shows that within 12-18 months after a halving, Bitcoin typically experiences significant price increases.

After the fourth halving in April 2024, BTC soared from $40K at the start of the year to break through $93K in November. What is the core driving force behind this? First, the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs—such products approved by the US SEC in January 2024 attracted over $2.8 billion in net inflows within just 10 months, far exceeding the historical performance of gold ETFs during the same period. Second, the continued deepening of institutional allocations, with listed companies like MicroStrategy increasing their BTC holdings in 2024, further reducing available supply on exchanges.

Technical support also plays a crucial role. When RSI breaks above 70 and the 50-day and 200-day moving averages cross in a golden cross, it often signals the establishment of strong upward momentum. On-chain data also sends positive signals—rising wallet activity, large inflows of stablecoins into exchanges, and record lows in exchange BTC balances—all pointing to active positioning by institutions and large investors.

Four Key Moments in Historical Bull Markets

2013’s Initial Breakthrough

This was the year Bitcoin first gained widespread attention. From $145 in May to $1200 in December, a 730% increase. The Cyprus banking crisis prompted some investors to view BTC as a safe haven, and extensive media coverage further fueled enthusiasm. However, the Mt.Gox security breach in early 2014 interrupted this rally, leading to a 75% drop and a prolonged market downturn.

2017 Retail Frenzy

This bull run was characterized by high retail participation. Starting at $1000, driven by the ICO boom, BTC surged toward nearly $20,000 by year’s end, a 1900% increase. Daily trading volume skyrocketed from $200M to $15B. However, regulatory crackdowns followed—China banned ICOs and exchange operations, and the US SEC increased scrutiny. By late 2018, BTC plummeted 84% to $3,200, educating many new investors about market risks.

2020-2021 Institutional Era

The pandemic-induced global liquidity flood and massive fiscal stimulus in the US made traditional assets less attractive under low interest rates. Bitcoin was rediscovered by institutions—not as a speculative asset, but as an inflation hedge and “digital gold.” From $8,000 in early 2020, it rose to $64,000 in April 2021 (a 700% increase), then hit $69,000 by the end of 2021. Companies like MicroStrategy, Tesla, and Square increased their BTC holdings, with institutional inflows exceeding $1 billion.

2024-2025: Systemic Breakthroughs with ETFs

The approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs has changed the game. Unlike futures or grayscale trusts, spot ETFs open direct holding channels for traditional funds and insurance companies. When BTC broke $93,000 in November, ETF net inflows had already reached $2.8 billion, providing stable buying support. Meanwhile, the supply pressure from the fourth halving, signals of a crypto-friendly US government, and expectations of global central bank rate cuts all reinforce the upward trend.

Key Signals for Initiating a Bull Market

For traders and investors, timely recognition of the early signs of a bull run is crucial. The following indicators are particularly valuable:

Technical Signals

• RSI breaking above the 50-day and entering overbought territory above 70
• Price breaking through key resistance levels (e.g., previous highs)
• Volume increasing alongside new highs in price
• Moving averages turning bullish (e.g., golden cross)

On-Chain Indicators

• Slowing rate of Bitcoin inflow to exchanges, indicating accumulation by large holders
• Rising activity in whale wallets (holding 100+ BTC)
• Increased volatility in stablecoin balances, signaling capital buildup
• Exchange BTC balances reaching historic lows, indicating tightening supply

Macro Environment

• Positive policy signals (e.g., crypto-friendly governments, expectations of rate cuts)
• Increased allocation to crypto assets in corporate financial reports
• Approval of new financial products
• Rising uncertainty in major global economic events

When these signals align, the next bull run is usually on the horizon.

2024 New Variables: The Power of Systemic Recognition

The launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs is arguably the most significant event of 2024. Compared to previous reliance on retail enthusiasm and small-scale institutional allocations, this breakthrough opens investment channels for hundreds of billions of dollars. Giants like BlackRock and Fidelity managing products like IBIT and FBTC have already seen billions of dollars in short-term inflows.

Meanwhile, US Senator Cynthia Lummis proposed the “2024 Bitcoin Act,” recommending the government acquire 1 million BTC as strategic reserves over five years. Although progress is slow, its symbolic significance is immense—once stigmatized as “digital gold,” Bitcoin is gradually gaining national-level recognition.

On the technical front, Bitcoin’s network is also set to upgrade. The possible revival of the OP_CAT opcode will unlock Layer-2 scaling solutions, increasing Bitcoin’s transactions per second from 7 to thousands, greatly expanding its application scope from a store of value to a computing platform.

Potential Triggers for the Next Bull Market

Next Halving Cycle (2028)

Every four years, halving events have proven to be powerful catalysts for Bitcoin prices. If historical patterns repeat, the 2028 halving could trigger a new upward trend in 2029-2030.

Government-Level Strategic Reserves

If the US passes the Bitcoin Act, other countries (especially the European Central Bank and Japan) might follow suit. This would fundamentally change Bitcoin’s demand structure, elevating it from a financial asset to a national strategic reserve, pushing valuations higher.

Maturity of DeFi and Smart Contract Ecosystems

Once OP_CAT is activated, Bitcoin will host lending, derivatives, and other applications. New use cases often generate new demand drivers.

Macro Liquidity Reversal

When global central banks face liquidity crises again (e.g., economic downturns prompting policy shifts), BTC’s role as a safe haven asset will be rediscovered.

Preparing for the Next Uptrend

Learning and Research Phase

Deepen understanding of Bitcoin’s technical principles, monetary policy design, and market cycles. Focus not only on price but also on on-chain data, holdings, and market sentiment. Public research reports and on-chain analysis tools provide valuable insights.

Develop Clear Strategies

Define your investment goals—short-term gains or long-term holding? What is your maximum tolerable loss? This guides your entry timing, position sizing, and risk management.

Choose Safe and Reliable Platforms

Bitcoin trading depends on exchanges. Ensure they have robust security measures (2FA, cold wallets, regular audits), user-friendly interfaces, and sufficient liquidity. Also, understand local regulations to avoid pitfalls.

Self-Custody Preparation

For long-term holdings, avoid keeping BTC on exchanges. Hardware wallets (like Ledger, Trezor) offer offline storage, greatly reducing theft risk. Safeguard recovery phrases and private keys carefully.

Monitor Macro Environment

Stay attentive to Federal Reserve rate decisions, US elections, global economic data, and central bank policies. These macro factors often drive Bitcoin’s medium-term trends.

Risk Management First

Set stop-loss orders to limit downside; use dollar-cost averaging to smooth entry points; diversify your portfolio to avoid overexposure; avoid excessive leverage.

Tax Planning

Crypto transactions are taxable in many jurisdictions. Understand local tax laws, keep detailed records, and consult tax professionals to prevent future issues.

Common Pitfalls During Bull Markets

FOMO-Driven FOMO (Fear of Missing Out)

During rapid price increases, retail investors are most prone to emotional trading, often ignoring risks. History shows that those who buy at market tops tend to suffer the biggest losses. Discipline and sticking to your strategy are more important than chasing the hype.

Over-Leverage and Derivatives Trading

In hot markets, exchanges offer perpetual contracts and leverage products. New traders are attracted by 10x or 50x leverage, but a single volatility spike can trigger forced liquidations. Maintain caution, and set strict stop-loss orders even when using leverage.

Neglecting Security Measures

Many investors have lost significant assets due to poor private key management, exchange hacks, or phishing scams. The Mt.Gox incident in 2013 is a lesson. No profit is worth risking your entire holdings.

Chasing Altcoins and New Tokens

During bull markets, countless altcoins and new tokens emerge, most of which are fleeting. Bitcoin, as the oldest and most secure crypto asset, offers the best risk-reward profile in the long run.

Conclusion: When Will the Next Market Cycle Arrive?

While no one can precisely predict Bitcoin’s turning point, based on historical patterns and current signals, we can infer that the next significant bull run is not far off. The cyclical nature of halving, systemic demand from ETFs, potential government reserves, and macro liquidity expectations all lay the groundwork for Bitcoin’s next leap.

Currently, BTC at $88.56K still has room to grow toward its all-time high of $126.08K. For long-term investors, the focus should not be on short-term volatility predictions but on understanding the long-term value proposition of this asset class and developing an investment plan accordingly.

Well-prepared, informed, and risk-aware investors will navigate the next upward cycle with ease. Conversely, those who are not will face greater challenges. Bitcoin’s history teaches us that the most successful investors are often not the smartest, but the most patient and disciplined.