#劳动力市场 The Federal Reserve's rate-cutting cycle is nearing its end, as can be clearly seen from the signals in the dot plot—only one expected rate cut of 25bp each in 2026 and 2027, far lower than the market's previous expectations. Key variables have clearly pointed to the labor market.

Let’s look at a few data points: The year-on-year growth rate of labor costs in Q3 has dropped to 3.5%, the lowest in four years; the unemployment rate has slightly increased, and job growth has significantly slowed down; the number of layoffs has risen to the highest level since early 2023. All these indicators point in the same direction - a weakening momentum in the job market and a clear decline in employers' willingness to hire.

Goldman Sachs' judgment is worth noting: preventive interest rate cuts have reached their limit, and the rationale for subsequent easing policies needs further weakening of labor market data to support it. In other words, the threshold has been raised. The adjustment in the wording of "magnitude and timing" in the dot plot is essentially meant to soothe the hawks, suggesting that the Federal Reserve is cautious about continuing easing.

From an on-chain perspective, this means that the certainty of liquidity expectations is declining, and the uncertainty of subsequent policy directions is rising. Next, it is important to closely monitor the trends of non-farm payroll data and unemployment rates—if the labor market continues to cool as expected, it may be the moment the next easing window opens. The rapid drop of BTC after Powell's speech also reflects this expectation gap.