Everyone, I recently saw an interesting piece of news. A seasoned player spent 120 million USD in just 5 hours, sweeping in 40,000 Ether all at once. What's more shocking is that his entire account lending limit is nearing 900 million. This style of operation is a bit creepy – is he certain about a big pump, or is he playing a deadly gamble?

But don't just pay attention to the exciting numbers, we need to see what the overall environment is saying.

**The macro aspect is a bit concerning**

The latest GDP growth rate in the United States has surged to 4.3%, which looks good, right? But this has directly killed the interest rate cut expectations. The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates in January plummeted from 31% to 13.3%—what does this number mean? The expectation of liquidity tightening has instantly emerged. Risk assets will be gradually moved out by investors, and cryptocurrencies are naturally on this list.

The cryptocurrency circle has never lacked people sensitive to interest rates. With this macro news coming out, is it really likely to expect Ethereum to strengthen on its own? The probability is indeed low. The short-term market sentiment has already leaned towards the conservative side.

**Technical signals are also flashing red lights**

Ethereum is fluctuating around 2970, facing resistance at 3180 above and supported by 2930 below. What does this repeated grinding in this range indicate? The trading volume is shrinking, and the MACD white line is firmly stuck below the zero axis, showing no signs of breaking through.

This is technically called a typical weak consolidation - the buyers do not have the courage to launch a large-scale attack, and each rebound seems like a feint. Retail investors are eager to try, but the real incremental funds are still on the sidelines.

Large investors spending money is certainly eye-catching, but in such a macro context and in front of technology, the impact of a single fund may not be that exaggerated. It's always better to be cautious, especially when the news and technical aspects are contradicting each other.