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🔴 The beginning of 2025 was marked by widespread pessimism due to Trump's protectionist rhetoric and fears of bubbles, but economic performance was relatively better than expected.
◾Global growth, trade, and financial markets surprised analysts and led to a revision of some prevailing assumptions, according to an analysis by "Financial Times"
◾Many US tariff threats proved to be negotiation tools rather than permanent policies
◾The diminished actual impact of tariffs helped improve risk appetite and support global growth
◾Economies and companies demonstrated a higher-than-expected ability to adapt to shocks
◾China enhanced its resilience through supply chains, innovation, and expanding exports to alternative markets
◾Several governments resorted to stimulus and reforms to counteract the effects of “America First”
◾US companies absorbed shocks by cutting costs, diversifying suppliers, and building inventories
◾Artificial intelligence and healthcare emerged as major shock absorbers for the US economy
◾Forecasts underestimated interactions and resilience, despite accurately diagnosing core risks
#TrumpTariffs #FOMCWatch
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