How long can the bull run go crazy? Looking at the capital flow, what is the critical point of this round?

Recently, there has been a heated discussion in the community: How long will this bull run continue to rise?

Rather than guessing blindly, it's better to let the data speak. According to historical patterns, each bull run follows the same “capital migration” script—only the main characters keep changing.

The Four Acts of Capital Flow

Act One: New Money Enters → BTC Sucks Blood

Institutions, retail investors, and even hedge funds see Bitcoin as a “VIP channel” to enter the market. This is not without reason—BTC has the strongest liquidity, the highest recognition, and the most controllable risk. The result is that BTC stands out, driving the sentiment of the entire market.

Act 2: BTC has risen enough → Everyone turns to ETH/SOL

When the rise of BTC can no longer reach new heights, greedy funds start to flip downwards. Major coins like ETH, SOL, and BNB become the new favorites, pursuing higher returns. At this time, Bitcoin's dominance begins to weaken, and the “altcoin season” truly kicks off.

Act Three: Big Cake Becomes Small Cake → Mid and Small Cap Stocks Surge in Turn

Risk appetite is through the roof. Retail investors are starting to invest in medium-cap coins, dreaming of getting rich overnight. Volatility has surged, with both profit-makers and losers being very extreme.

Act IV: Rational Death → Dogecoin/Meme Coin Takeover

This is a danger signal. When coins like DOGE and SHIB, which lack substantial technological value, start to explode, it indicates that the market has evolved from “investment” to “gambling”—relying entirely on social media hype and celebrity endorsements. History tells us: every time Dogecoin goes crazy, it’s not far from a crash.

Data slap in the face, can it still rise 15%?

Look at the current technical signals:

• The total market cap has broken through the “cup and handle” pattern, targeting $4.15 trillion → there is still about 15% room
• The potential of the total market value of altcoins is $1.8 trillion → 37% growth space
• Dogecoin's market value once plummeted by 93%, and is now recovering → but this time it may not lead to a new bull run.

This looks good. But there's a twist here.

This time might be different: RWA (Real World Asset Tokenization) is coming

Dogecoin is no longer the ultimate “mania indicator”. The new craze may come from a sexier concept: real-world assets on-chain (RWA).

Recent signals:

• Robinhood launches tokenized stock trading in Europe
• Kraken launches tokenized stocks in the US
• The Republic will issue token shares of private companies such as SpaceX.
• Coinbase is seeking SEC approval for tokenized securities.

From a technical perspective, the total market value of RWA once fell by 93%, but it is now making a comeback, with potential to reach the trillion-dollar level——growth space of 300%.

In other words: the final act of this bull run, the main character may have switched from Dogecoin to RWA tokens.

What to do

1. Observe the flow of funds: BTC→ETH→small and medium coins→new narratives, each conversion is an arbitrage window.
2. Set a take-profit point: Seeing Dogecoin or meme coins exploding? That's a yellow card warning; it's time to consider cashing out.
3. Focus on the RWA track: If this is indeed the RWA takeover, it's not too late to lay out a plan now.
4. Don't chase highs: History is always the same - the madness ends in a crash.

The cryptocurrency cycle is like waves, with patterns laid out. The question is not whether you can predict it, but whether you can understand the shape of these waves.