#特朗普撤销农产品关税 On Monday, Japan's long-term government bonds suddenly collapsed, and the reason behind it is straightforward - the market is betting that the government's upcoming economic stimulus plan will lead to a massive new debt issuance.

The logic is simple: when the government lacks money, it has to issue bonds to borrow money. If it borrows too aggressively, the market cannot absorb it, and investors will immediately flee at the first sign of trouble. The result is a wave of selling of government bonds, causing prices to plummet and yields to soar. The 20-year Treasury yield surged to a new high since 1999, the 30-year reached 3.26%, and the 40-year even spiked to 3.6%.

Everyone is currently waiting to see how much money Takashita Saimai's stimulus plan will actually spend. The economic data released on Monday was indeed disappointing, which conveniently gives her an excuse to unleash a lot of money. But here's the problem — the Bank of Japan is still clamoring to continue raising interest rates. On one side, the government is hitting the gas to inject liquidity, and on the other side, the central bank is hitting the brakes to tighten up; these two operations are completely at odds.

If the final bond issuance scale really exceeds expectations, government bonds may continue to be sold off. This kind of bond market volatility will ultimately affect the pricing of all risk assets, which is worth keeping an eye on.