🟠 The mining cost $BTC has a new ATH, which is more than 10% higher than the current price – what does this mean?

The average production cost of 1 BTC has surged to an all-time high of $116,472, while the trading price is only around $100K. This means the entire network is operating in a state of negative margin, and miners are losing money if they don't have a cost advantage.

📌 Looking at the network structure, since the 2024 halving, the hashrate and difficulty have continuously peaked, causing energy costs, equipment, and borrowing costs to soar. Data from CoinShares and VanEck indicate that the average cost for major miners after the halving is around $60K–$90K, but the overall network average has been pushed above ( due to fierce competition and rising electricity prices.

This is the stage of "mini miner capitulation", where the network system self-cleans the excess to maintain sustainability.

In previous cycles, this pattern repeated: Miners shut down → selling pressure decreases → difficulty decreases → profits recover → price ) rises again. These phases repeat cyclically.

📌 Production costs always serve as the "floor value" of Bitcoin. Below this level, miners will stop selling $100K or shut down their machines $BTC , resulting in a contraction of supply and the market self-balancing. In the past, each time the price fell below cost, it coincided with a large accumulation area:
- At the end of 2018, the price fell below the mining cost → miner capitulation → ( created a bottom of $3K.
- In March 2020, the price fell below the mining cost → hashrate dropped → the beginning of the bullrun 2020–2021.
- At the end of 2022, prices dropped close to the cost zone → miners faced a squeeze → a medium-term bottom formed before the 2023–2025 cycle.

📌 Currently, the price is about 10-12% lower than the mining cost, similar to the "structural discount" areas in history. When the network is operating at a loss, the price has 2 directions to balance:
1. Prices must rise to restore profits for miners.
2️. Miners must turn off their machines, reduce supply, forcing the market to reprice higher.

👉No matter which way you look at it, the risk never leans towards long-term holders when the mining costs can only increase and cannot decrease over time.