#十二月降息预测

From an investment strategy perspective, looking at the asset revaluation opportunities during the interest rate cut cycle.
If the interest rate cut cycle begins in December, asset allocation strategies need to be adjusted accordingly. First, the bond market will welcome a favorable investment window, with long-term government bonds and high-grade credit bonds possibly gaining capital appreciation. Secondly, interest rate-sensitive sectors in the stock market such as real estate, technology, and finance may perform well. Meanwhile, safe-haven assets like gold may continue to rise against the backdrop of a weakening dollar. However, investors should remain wary of the misconception that "a rate cut equals economic recovery." If the rate cut stems from concerns about economic slowdown or even recession, corporate profitability may not improve immediately, and stock market rebounds may be limited. Therefore, the strategy should adopt a "balanced allocation + dynamic adjustment" approach, capturing short-term opportunities brought by liquidity easing while retaining defensive assets to cope with potential fluctuations. Overall, the expectations of a rate cut in December have strengthened the market's confidence in liquidity improvement in 2025, but the actual investment returns will still depend on the sustainability of economic recovery and the pace of policy implementation.