🚀 Is the bull market still on? — A calm observation from the middle of the market.

📌 Summary
The recent fluctuations in the market have led many people to start doubting:
"Has the cow left?"
In fact, from the perspective of cyclical logic, capital structure, and sentiment trends, the bull market has not ended.
However, the market has entered the "mid-term adjustment" phase - this means that a time that tests patience and strategy has arrived.

💹 1. The bull market is still on, but it's shifting gears.
From a macro perspective, although liquidity has tightened temporarily, the core conditions remain unchanged:

Institutional funds for ETFs are still in the market.

Global interest rate cut expectations are still postponed but have not reversed;

U.S. stocks are fluctuating at high levels but have not turned bearish;

BTC is still running above the 100-day moving average, while ETH is stable in the mid-channel support area.

From a cyclical perspective, this is more like the "mid-bull market consolidation" phase of Q2 2021 or mid-2019.
The main funds are eliminating leverage and short-term speculative positions in preparation for the next stage of the rally.
In simple terms: the bull market is still here, it's just slowed down.

🧭 2. Three Major Characteristics of the Market Entering the "Wash Positioning Period"
1️⃣ Leverage liquidation is obvious:
The funding rate has turned negative from a high level, open interest has decreased, and market leverage has been systematically compressed.
2️⃣ Emotional fluctuations:
The fear index is rising rapidly, but mainstream coins have not broken through structural support, indicating that fear is more psychological than based on fundamentals.
3️⃣ Capital flow changes:
Institutions have not withdrawn, but are repositioning; the on-chain stablecoin supply remains high, indicating that the "potential powder keg" is still strong.

💡 3. Operating Suggestions: Balance Strategy and Rhythm
Short-term traders

Position control should be within 30%, and do not chase highs or cut losses;

Pay attention to whether BTC can stabilize above 108,000 USD and whether ETH can hold the support at 3,900 USD;

A significant rebound is the confirmation signal; buying the dip in advance carries a high risk.

medium to long-term investors

This is a good time for "chip redistribution";

Gradually allocate mainstream assets, especially institutional preferred currencies like BTC and ETH;

Fund management should be flexible, leaving a position in stablecoins for defense.

Long-term believer

The bull market structure is still in place; the adjustment period is an opportunity, not a threat.

Focus on the turning point of macro liquidity. Once the interest rate cut is realized, it will mark the starting point of a new wave of market activity.

"When the market is in panic, smart money quietly enters; when the sentiment recovers, they are already on board."

📊 5. Today's Conclusion
This round of adjustment is not the end of the bull market, but a deeper level of breathing.
What the market needs is not passion, but time.
Only those who can endure the adjustments deserve the benefits of the trend.
Remember: the cow hasn't left, it's just slowing down temporarily.