The trend of manufacturing PMI may extend the Bitcoin market cycle.

The American Supply Management Association ( ISM ) Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index ( PMI ) has historically aligned with significant peaks in Bitcoin market cycles. This pattern suggests that if this trend continues, the current cycle may be longer than previous ones. The correlation between ISM PMI and Bitcoin prices was initially proposed by Raoul Pal of Real Vision, which subsequently attracted the attention of macro-focused crypto analysts. Analyst Colin Talks Crypto pointed out that the peaks of the last three Bitcoin cycles roughly coincide with the cyclical peaks of this monthly index. If this relationship persists, it could indicate a cycle that is much longer than what Bitcoin cycles typically exhibit. The ISM Manufacturing PMI, used to assess U.S. industrial activity, has remained below the neutral level of 50 for seven consecutive months, indicating that the economy is in a contraction state. A sustained reading above 50 indicates economic re-expansion, which has historically been strongly correlated with Bitcoin price performance. Earlier this year, the PMI briefly broke above 50, then fell back into contraction territory, highlighting ongoing weakness in the manufacturing economy. The Manufacturing PMI index suggests a strong rebound in business confidence at the beginning of the year, partly due to optimism surrounding the incoming Trump administration and expectations of pro-business policies. However, high tariffs, uncertain trade policies, and weak global demand continue to weigh on the sector, which may prolong rather than accelerate the business cycle. The latest ISM report shows a slight increase in the manufacturing PMI index in September, with rising prices, while imports and exports contracted, indicating uneven conditions across manufacturing sub-industries. Although the weak ISM indicates that the manufacturing sector's share of U.S. economic output is declining, this means that a contraction in the PMI does not necessarily signal an economic recession. ISM has previously noted that an index sustained above 42.3 typically aligns with overall economic growth. A purchasing manager in the transportation equipment industry reported in September that business remains severely sluggish due to shrinking profits and extreme taxes imposed in the form of tariffs, which have increased costs across the entire supply chain. They noted that as businesses begin to pass on tariffs through surcharges, price pressures are rising for both input and customer output products.