#CPI数据来袭

The release of this key data coincides with the fourth week of the U.S. government shutdown, and there is less than a week left until the Federal Reserve's October meeting, amplifying its importance in the market. During this sensitive period, expectations for consecutive interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve have significantly increased, directly driving a strong rise in safe-haven assets such as gold and silver.

The overall CPI increased by 3.0% year-on-year, lower than the market expectation of 3.1%.
Core CPI rose 3.0% year-on-year, unchanged from the previous value, but lower than expected.
The core CPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month, the slowest growth rate in the past three months.

Inflationary pressures are gradually and controllably cooling down. In particular, the slowdown in core inflation indicators provides the Federal Reserve with a license to continue easing its monetary policy. In the absence of other important economic data such as non-farm employment, this CPI report has become a key barometer for the market to gauge the Federal Reserve's next move.

The significant rise in metals such as gold and silver is a direct response from the market to the theme of interest rate cuts. A rate cut means the interest attractiveness of dollar assets decreases, leading to a weaker dollar. As gold is priced in dollars, the depreciation of the dollar makes gold cheaper for investors holding other currencies, thus driving up gold prices. Rate cuts will lower government bond yields, and with inflation under control, real interest rates will decline accordingly. For gold, which does not generate interest income, lower real interest rates reduce the holding costs, making it more attractive. The mild data from the September CPI has solidified market expectations that the Federal Reserve will continue to cut rates in October or even December, and this easing expectation has become the main driving force behind the rise in gold and silver prices.

The current window period is filled with political and economic uncertainties. The ongoing government shutdown has not only delayed key economic data, causing a data famine in the market, but has also cast a shadow over the economic outlook. The government shutdown itself is a challenge to economic stability, further increasing investors' demand for safe-haven assets. Although the CPI report has cleared the way for interest rate cuts, the wording of the policy at the Federal Reserve's meeting next week is equally crucial. If the Federal Reserve shows a tough stance on future economic resilience or inflation risks while cutting interest rates, it may cool excessive easing expectations in the market in the short term.

The mild release of the U.S. September CPI, combined with the uncertainty brought about by the government shutdown, is affecting the market. Currently, interest rate cut expectations dominate, successfully guiding the market's bets on the Federal Reserve's actions and becoming the most direct driving force behind the strong rise of safe-haven assets.