Tonight (October 24), the United States will release the September CPI data. As this is the first key inflation report issued after the prolonged government shutdown, the market is generally on high alert. This data will have a significant impact on the Crypto Assets market, particularly the short-term trend of Bitcoin.

The following summarizes the core expectations of the current market and the potential impact paths on Bitcoin, allowing you to clearly see various possibilities at a glance.

CPI data performance and its impact on the Federal Reserve's policy expectations Potential response of Bitcoin:
Inflation cools down, with data below the expected 3.1%, strengthening the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations and boosting market risk appetite.
Bullish 🚀 may break through the $113,600 resistance level and move towards the $120,000 target.

In line with expectations, the data shows a year-on-year increase of 3.1%, which does not affect the expectation of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve next week. Market reactions may be relatively subdued and range-bound.
⚖️ Market focus may shift to other factors, and attention should be paid to the contest for key technical levels (such as $112,000).
Inflation overheating, with data exceeding the expected 3.1%, raises concerns about the Federal Reserve delaying interest rate cuts or maintaining high rates, which could strengthen the dollar.
Bearish 📉 The key support levels of $107,200 and the psychological barrier of $100,000 will be tested.

💡 Other Crypto Assets and Market Dynamics

Apart from Bitcoin, the entire Crypto Assets market will also fluctuate accordingly, and the degree of fluctuation may vary among different coins.

· Ethereum's volatility may be greater: According to data from the Deribit options market, the expected price volatility of Ethereum (ETH) (±2.9%) is higher than that of Bitcoin (±1.4%) after the release of the CPI. This means that mainstream altcoins like Ethereum may experience more drastic fluctuations after the data is announced.
· Market sentiment shows cautious improvement: Although CPI data is about to be released, the market had previously shown some signs of recovery. Bitcoin price had risen above $111,000, while the Crypto Assets fear and greed index also slightly rebounded from a low level, but still remains in the "fear" zone, indicating that investors are still being cautious.

🔍 Coping Strategy

In the face of such critical events, you may consider the following strategies to manage risk:

· Pay attention to key technical positions: From a technical perspective, $112,000 is the next key resistance level that Bitcoin needs to overcome. A successful breakthrough may open up further upward space. On the downside, $107,200 and the $100,000 mark are important psychological and technical support levels.
· Consider using derivatives for hedging: Institutional investors often use options (such as buying put options) and other tools to hedge against the one-way risks brought by CPI events. Ordinary investors can also understand relevant tools, but it is essential to pay attention to their complexity.
· Maintain the flexibility of stablecoins: Holding some stablecoins (such as USDT, USDC) during uncertain times can serve as a good liquidity buffer, enabling you to act quickly when market opportunities arise.

I hope the above analysis can help you understand the market tonight. It is important to note that all market forecasts carry uncertainty, and the above analysis does not constitute investment advice.

Which operational strategy are you more inclined to choose tonight? Is it to wait and see, or are you already prepared to respond to different market outcomes? #CPI数据来袭