After Bitcoin's price was pressured at a high of 115900, it broke below the previous support level of 113500 and did not show any significant signs of halting the decline. During the trading hours, the price experienced a downward movement, and during this drop, the Trading Volume increased significantly, contrasting sharply with the previous period of volatility where there was 'insufficient volume'. This reflects an enhanced willingness to sell in the current market, which has consistently lacked incremental capital getting on board. After the balance between bulls and bears was disrupted, the issue of 'insufficient buying' was amplified. Especially after the price broke below the key support of 113500, some investors triggered stop loss orders, resulting in a 'cascade-style drop', further exacerbating the decline. The continued downward movement during trading hours reflects a shift in market sentiment towards caution, with observing funds unwilling to enter the market. If the 11W level cannot attract sufficient buying, the price may further dip to the 108000-105000 range.

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From an external perspective, tonight's speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Powell has become the biggest variable. Since last month's FOMC meeting, the market's divergence on the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy direction has continued to widen—some investors believe that current inflation data is declining, and the Federal Reserve may start a rate cut cycle; however, there are also views that the labor market remains resilient, and the Federal Reserve may maintain high interest rates to solidify the results of the inflation drop. As Powell is the "core spokesperson" for the Federal Reserve, his statements will directly affect key asset trends such as the US dollar index and US Treasury yields. Before Powell's speech is released, the market is likely to maintain a pattern of "cautious wait-and-see + downward movement testing." If the speech releases "hawkish signals" (such as emphasizing the maintenance of high interest rates), it may further suppress Bitcoin prices, increasing the risk of breaking through the 11W level; if it releases "dovish signals" (such as hinting at the possibility of future rate cuts), it may provide rebound momentum for Bitcoin, alleviating the current downward pressure.

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