What is MVRV-Z Score?

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MVRV-Z Score is this Bitcoin chart that uses blockchain analysis to spot when Bitcoin seems ridiculously overvalued or undervalued compared to what it might be "really" worth.

It uses three main things:

  1. Market Value (black line): Just Bitcoin's current price times how many coins exist. Like market cap.

  2. Realized Value (blue line): Different approach here. It looks at the price of each Bitcoin when it last moved between wallets. Then averages those prices.

    Takes out all the short-term emotion stuff. Kind of gives you a more grounded view of Bitcoin's value. Market Value bounces all around this line based on how people feel.

  3. Z-score (orange line): Math stuff that shows when things get extreme.

How You Might Use It

This score has been pretty amazing at catching times when market value shoots way above realized value. Look for when the orange line hits that pink box. That's usually the top. Crazy accurate - it's caught every cycle peak within about two weeks.

When the z-score drops into the green box? Bitcoin's cheap. People who bought during these periods made serious money. Not complicated.

Predicting Bitcoin Price

The chart helps spot extremes. When MVRV-Z gets into the red zone up top, Bitcoin might need to chill out a bit. When it's hanging out in the green zone below, prices tend to climb afterward.

As of September 2025, the score sits at 3.2. Not great. Seems like we're in somewhat overvalued territory. This level sits near the higher end of what we've seen before. Bit concerning.

Looking back, whenever the indicator hit these levels, prices usually corrected. It's caught major Bitcoin peaks within 2 weeks. Pretty impressive track record for timing investments.

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