#美联储货币政策# Looking back at history, the Fed's monetary policy has always been a matter of great concern. Although the high interest rate policy during Paul Volcker's era successfully curbed inflation, it also led to a severe economic recession. Today, in light of the remarks made by the Milan Council, I can't help but reflect. He mentioned that the current policy is "very tight" and could jeopardize employment, which reminds me of the situation in the early 1980s.

At that time, the unemployment rate soared to over 10%, many businesses went bankrupt, and workers lost their jobs. Although inflation was eventually brought under control, the cost was enormous. Now, the federal funds interest rate is nearly two percentage points above what Milan considers an appropriate level, which is concerning.

History tells us that the effects of monetary policy are often lagged and profound. Excessive tightening may lead to a repeat of past mistakes, causing severe trauma to the job market. On the other hand, if the policy shifts too quickly, it may repeat the nightmare of uncontrollable inflation in the 1970s.

In this delicate balance, I believe the Fed needs to be more cautious. It is important to use tools like the Taylor rule, but as Milan said, we cannot rely on them blindly. The economic environment of each era has its own particularities, requiring a flexible response.

For us seniors who have experienced multiple economic cycles, the most important thing is to learn from historical lessons and avoid repeating mistakes. Currently, closely monitoring employment data and inflation trends, and adjusting policies in a timely manner may be the wise course of action. After all, economic stability and full employment are the ultimate goals of monetary policy.