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The latest economic data released in the United States has caused an uproar in the market, with various indicators exceeding expectations, raising concerns about economic overheating and persistent inflation.
Data shows that the number of initial unemployment claims dropped to 218,000, hitting a new low in nearly two months, significantly lower than analysts' expectations. Meanwhile, the annualized quarterly GDP growth rate for the second quarter has been revised up to 3.8%, greatly exceeding the previous forecast of 3.3%. Notably, the annualized quarterly core PCE price index, closely monitored by the Federal Reserve, reached 2.6% for the second quarter, higher than the market expectation of 2.5%.
These data collectively reflect that the U.S. economy demonstrates extraordinary resilience, but at the same time, they also suggest that inflationary pressures may be more stubborn than previously thought. Market expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve have changed accordingly, with CME data showing that the probability of a 25 basis point cut in October has dropped from 91.9% the previous day to 83.4%.
After the economic data was released, the financial markets reacted immediately. The US dollar index rose nearly 30 points, while gold prices experienced a short-term drop of about 20 dollars. As a high-risk asset, cryptocurrencies may face significant downward pressure under the expectation of potentially maintaining high interest rates for a long time.
These data undoubtedly bring new uncertainties to the market. Investors are closely monitoring the subsequent economic trends and the possible policy adjustments by the Federal Reserve. In this complex economic environment, market participants need to remain vigilant and adjust their investment strategies in a timely manner.