#美联储降息预期# Reviewing history, the Fed's rate cuts always play out cyclically. Recently, the statement from the new board member Milan sparked my thoughts. He emphasized an independent stance on rate cuts, which reminded me of the 2008 financial crisis. At that time, Bernanke also stated the need to maintain independence, but ultimately he significantly cut rates under political pressure. Now, Milan votes against a 25 basis point rate cut, advocating for a larger reduction; this posture feels familiar.

History tells us that the Fed's independence often struggles to withstand the test of economic downturns. From the Great Depression in 1929 to the financial crisis in 2008, the Fed had to adopt aggressive easing policies during each major crisis. With the current economic growth slowing down and the elections approaching, political pressure is likely to increase.

I believe that investors should not overinterpret the decisions of a single meeting, but rather focus on the longer-term policy direction. Historically, once a rate-cutting cycle begins, it usually lasts for a considerable amount of time. Regardless of how much the Fed emphasizes independence, it ultimately cannot escape the fate of easing. For the cryptocurrency market, this may indicate that a new bull market cycle is about to arrive. Of course, this is merely a speculation based on historical patterns, and specific attention should be paid to subsequent policy developments.