#美联储降息预期升温# #Gate广场创作点亮中秋#

On September 18, the market eagerly anticipates the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut drama for the year to unfold. Based on the weak non-farm data from August and the economic growth slowdown due to tariffs, although the CPI data rose to 2.9% (in line with market expectations), the market generally believes that the Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points, with some aggressive institutions even proposing a 50 basis point cut.

📌📌 I believe it is a done deal that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates by 25 basis points on Thursday. On one hand, the August non-farm payroll data fell far short of expectations, and the cumulative job data for the previous two quarters was revised down by 258,000, forcing the Federal Reserve to shift its policy focus from inflation to employment protection. On the other hand, the Fed's dual mandate dictates that it must strike a balance between economic growth and inflation, so the probability of a 50 basis point cut is low.
In terms of market predictions, as of September 15, 2025, the Chicago Fed's observation tool shows a 92.7% probability that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates by 25 basis points, while the probability of a 50 basis point cut is only 7.3%. Mainstream views from Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, and Barclays support a moderate adjustment of 25 basis points, while Morgan Stanley advocates for a 50 basis point cut.
In addition to the extent of the interest rate cut, the Federal Reserve's post-meeting statement on whether it is hawkish or dovish is also very important, which largely depends on the U.S. retail sales data for August to be released tomorrow. If the data is lower than expected, the Fed's remarks are expected to remain dovish.

📌📌I believe that before and after the interest rate cut, Bitcoin/ETH and SOL will show a trend of rising first and then falling. Before the Fed cuts rates, the market is expected to continue rising under the influence of favorable expectations. After the interest rate cut, there may be a short-term correction trend of "good news fully priced in". At that time, attention should be paid to the Fed's post-meeting statements; if they lean towards a hawkish stance, the probability of a downturn increases, and one should reduce positions to lower risk.

📌📌Looking back, every time the Federal Reserve begins a rate cut cycle, it is accompanied by a market rally, and I believe this time will be no exception:
1. August 2019 - March 2020 (Preemptive Rate Cuts → Pandemic Crisis) Background: The Federal Reserve cut interest rates three times by a total of 75 basis points in response to the economic slowdown. Bitcoin's reaction: It rose 23% within 30 days after the first rate cut, but during the global asset sell-off in March 2020, it plummeted 40% in a single day, ultimately entering a bull market under a zero interest rate + QE environment. In April 2021, it broke through $60,000.
2. May 2023 - June 2024 (The Final Stage of the Inflation Battle) Background: The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates from a peak of 5.25% to 3.75%. Bitcoin Performance: Increased by 82% in the three months leading up to the first rate cut due to expectations.
According to data statistics, the median cumulative return rate after the first interest rate cut policy was implemented over 7 trading days is 8.4%.
From a causative perspective, Bitcoin resembles digital gold more closely, primarily influenced by macro policies, the strength of the dollar, and bond interest rates. On one hand, during a weak dollar cycle, investors tend to allocate scarce assets, and the total supply cap of 21 million Bitcoins reinforces its anti-inflation properties; on the other hand, interest rate cuts will release a large amount of capital, some of which flows into high-risk assets, with Bitcoin becoming a safe haven for funds due to its high volatility.
From the K-line perspective, the recent trend of Bitcoin has shown an upward wedge pattern, which usually indicates that the upward momentum may weaken. However, from the weekly chart, it presents a rising continuation pattern, with the MACD green bars continuing to decrease in volume. The index is still some distance from the 120,000 pressure level at the upper Bollinger Band, indicating there is still room for upward movement. The onset of the interest rate reduction cycle may be the final catalyst to spark a new bull market 💉💉💉.