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Bitcoin treasury companies are still trading at a premium.
That’s mostly because they’ve followed the MicroStrategy playbook: borrow money at cheap, buy $BTC on dips, and use volatility to boost returns.
But things have changed:
> Volatility is now at multi year lows. Realized vol is now around only 25% compared to 50%+ at the peak.
> Corporate buying has slowed. Public companies added only around 5K $BTC in the last quarter which is almost 90% less compared to more than 50K+ in Q1.
the premium looks fragile without those supports.
what keeps it going? a rebound in volatility: an election season, demand from ETFs and sovereign buyers could help.
If neither happens, the premium will fade and if they do, balance sheets will turn into leverage machines again, just like we saw with MicroStrategy.
It comes to one question: is this just a pause or is it the start of another high?