In the current complex economic situation, the Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates has had a profound impact on the Bitcoin market, presenting a "long-term bullish, short-term variability" trend.

Looking back at history, there is a complex relationship between the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and the price movements of Bitcoin. At the end of July 2019, a 25 basis point rate cut triggered a short-term increase of about 19% in Bitcoin, but it subsequently experienced a nearly 50% correction over the next six months. After a 50 basis point rate cut in early March 2020, Bitcoin saw a strong rebound following a brief decline, reflecting the lagging positive effects of a low interest rate environment on digital assets. The rate cut in September 2024 brought a moderate increase, but concerns about economic recession limited the gains. The rate cut in December of the same year failed to meet market expectations, resulting in a short-term decline.

Looking ahead to the period from September to October 2025, the trend of Bitcoin will heavily depend on the specific policies of the Federal Reserve. If a 25 basis point rate cut occurs, it may drive the price of Bitcoin to fluctuate between $118,000 and $125,000, with a potential challenge to the $130,000 mark. If the Federal Reserve adopts a more aggressive 50 basis point rate cut and clearly outlines a path of easing, Bitcoin could break through $125,000 and even aim for the $150,000 high, as the market may react in advance to the expectations of a rate cut in the fourth quarter.

However, if the Federal Reserve only slightly lowers interest rates by 25 basis points without providing a clear easing signal, Bitcoin may fluctuate between $112,000 and $118,000, awaiting further policy guidance. In the most conservative scenario, if the Federal Reserve maintains current rates or only makes a symbolic cut, it could put pressure on Bitcoin prices, causing it to fall back to the range of $105,000 to $112,000.

It is worth noting that market sentiment and macroeconomic factors will also play an important role in the price trends of Bitcoin. Investors need to closely monitor the Federal Reserve's policy statements and economic data, as well as changes in the global geopolitical situation, as these factors may have a significant impact on the digital currency market.

Overall, although the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut policy has a significant impact on the Bitcoin market, investors still need to cautiously assess various possibilities and take into account the inherent high volatility characteristics of the digital currency market. Comprehensive market analysis and risk management strategies are crucial when making investment decisions.