Fed Prepares to Cut Interest Rates: Direct Impact on the Crypto Market

The September meeting of the Federal Reserve Mỹ (Fed) on 17/09 is seen as one of the most anticipated events in many years. The leaked data, forecasts, and market signals are all leaning towards the scenario that the Fed will begin a strong easing cycle. 🔎 Basic scenario (Highest probability) → Cut 25 basis points Probability: 90–95% (according to CME FedWatch & Polymarket).Reasons for support: The unemployment rate has risen to 4.3%. CPI has fallen below 3%. The minutes from the July meeting show that 2 Fed members wanted to cut rates right from the start. Post-cut interest rate: 4.00 – 4.25%. ⚡ Aggressive scenario → Cut by 50 basis points Probability: 5–10%. Possible reasons: August employment figures weaker than forecast. Wholesale inflation falls into negative territory. Some major banks ( Standard Chartered ) and Fed Watchers experts forecast this possibility. Post-cut interest rates: 3.75 – 4.00%. 👉 If this scenario occurs, the crypto market could explode violently: BTC tests the range of $125K–130K. ETH heads straight up to $5K–5.5K. 🛑 Extremely low scenario → Maintain interest rates Probability: <5%. Impact: Shocking the financial market. Creating strong selling pressure on risky assets, from stocks to crypto. BTC may adjust to near $100K, ETH around $4K before bouncing back. Volatility on both VIX ( stocks ) and BVIV ( crypto ) skyrockets. 🔥 Affects the Crypto market Bitcoin ($BTC): Current price ~$116K.25 bps → pushing the price to $120K–125K.50 bps → potential to exceed $130K in the short term. Ethereum ($ETH): Currently ~$4.5K.25 bps → aiming for $4.8K–5K.50 bps → accelerating to $5.5K. Altcoins & DeFi: Liquidity is rotating into high beta tokens. $SOL, $ADA, $XRP could increase by 10–20% in just a few days. The TVL of DeFi is booming as capital seeks yields away from US bonds. Stablecoins: Each time the Fed cuts 50 bps, stablecoin issuers lose about $600M/year in interest from bonds. This capital will seek higher yields in DeFi and altcoins. ⚖️ Summary viewpoint The Fed has almost no choice but to cut. The only question is: how much to reduce. 25 bps → The market has priced this in, but remains positive for crypto. 50 bps → A strong shock, could trigger a historical explosion. 0 bps ( not cut ) → The market will suffer initially, but it will open up the biggest buying opportunity in 2025. 👉 September 17 will be a decisive turning point. No matter what, crypto remains the biggest beneficiary of this easing cycle.