Recent trends in the financial market indicate that the U.S. economy may be facing multiple challenges. In the stock market, the valuations of the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices have reached their highest points in nearly 20 years, with much of the increase driven by seven major tech giants. If the investment frenzy in artificial intelligence wanes or corporate profits fall short of expectations, it could trigger a significant market pullback. For instance, some forecasts suggest that in March 2025, the Nasdaq could see a weekly fall exceeding 4%, nearing the edge of a Bear Market.

At the same time, changes in trade policies have also brought cost pressures to businesses. Increases in tariffs directly affect the profit margins of companies, especially in the technology sector. Some analyses suggest that certain tech companies may need to raise prices by 17%-18% to offset the impact of tariffs. This not only compresses profits but also increases the risk of supply chain disruptions.

The signs of economic recession are becoming increasingly apparent. The GDPNOW model predicts that the U.S. GDP for the first quarter may fall to -2.4%, the consumer confidence index has significantly dropped, and the unemployment rate has surpassed 4.1%. The market is highly concerned about "stagflation + recession," leading to a single-day market value evaporation of $2.5 trillion in February 2025.

The bond market is also facing challenges. The Federal Reserve's policy stance could lead to unusual fluctuations in yields. For example, the policy adjustment in December 2024 may cause the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds to leap to 4.6% in the short term. The market's expectations for the prolongation of high interest rates have also limited the upside potential of long-term bonds.

What is even more concerning is the sustainability issue of the U.S. debt. The scale of national debt has exceeded $37 trillion, accounting for 135% of GDP. In a high-interest rate environment, interest expenses now account for more than 20% of fiscal revenue, which poses tremendous pressure on the national finances.

Overall, the U.S. financial market may face multiple challenges in 2025, including valuation bubbles, trade frictions, economic recession, and debt risks. Investors need to closely monitor these risk factors and adjust their investment strategies in a timely manner.