Global liquidity expectations are like the surging waters of the crypto world, guiding the direction of the digital money market. Recently, the market has fully incorporated the expectation of "three interest rate cuts within the year" into pricing, and this double-edged sword hangs over Bitcoin, making investors feel extremely anxious.

Although expectations of interest rate cuts are generally seen as good news, the underlying signals of economic weakness this time are concerning. The market anticipates that the Federal Reserve will cut rates by 75 basis points within the year, and the yield on 10-year Treasury bonds has also fallen below 4%. In this context, the rate cut feels more like a treatment for the "symptoms" of the economy rather than a proactive measure to stimulate growth.

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin is currently oscillating above the middle band of the Bollinger Bands, with bullish and bearish forces fiercely clashing in the range of 114,000 to 116,290 USD. 116,200 USD has become a key resistance level, and if it can be broken strongly, it may trigger chase buying from technical analysts, potentially even testing the 120,000 USD mark. However, if it falls below the 114,000 USD support, it may trigger a pullback to around 112,000 USD.

Historical experience shows that sideways consolidation is not always a prelude to an upward trend. For example, the previous 519 flash crash occurred after a similar consolidation phase. Therefore, investors must strictly adhere to technical signals and set stop-loss levels to protect their capital.

For ordinary investors, the importance of position management far exceeds predicting market direction. It is advisable to remain cautious at the current stage and avoid full position operations. You can gradually build positions after breaking through $116,200 while closely monitoring the support level at $114,000; if it falls below that, reduce positions decisively. In addition, the trend of U.S. Treasury yields is also an important indicator worth paying attention to, as its rebound may trigger a correction in risk assets.

In the short term, technical breakthroughs will dominate the market; in the medium term, attention must be paid to the impact of macro news. In any case, at this critical moment, investors should remain vigilant, manage risks well, and avoid blindly chasing highs.