As the economic situation changes, the direction of the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve (Fed) has attracted widespread attention from the market. According to current market expectations, the Fed may implement a 25 basis point rate cut in September, which has become a highly probable event.

The Fed has always been adept at guiding market expectations through the art of nuanced communication. Although the statements of different officials vary between hawkish and dovish, they generally maintain close interaction with the market and follow a clear policy rhythm.

Currently, the market has formed a relatively clear expectation regarding the Fed's interest rate cut path: by the end of the year, the cumulative rate cut may reach 75 basis points. Specifically, there may be a cut of 50 basis points in both September and October, followed by a cut of 25 basis points in December.

This series of interest rate cuts will directly promote the release of liquidity. In addition to the reduction in the scale of reverse repos by the Fed and the warming of the treasury bond market, it is expected that by the fourth quarter of 2025, a large amount of liquidity will truly enter the market, which may bring two main impacts:

First, it may force the EU, Japan, and some emerging market countries to follow the U.S. and accordingly release liquidity.

Secondly, this situation may have a positive impact on the Nasdaq index, tech stocks, and global risk assets such as Bitcoin in the US stock market. The fourth quarter could become a small harvest season for these types of assets.

Are investors fully prepared for the upcoming market changes? In this financial environment full of opportunities and challenges, closely following market trends and timely adjusting investment strategies will become an important issue that investors need to carefully consider.