The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data to be released tonight will undoubtedly be the focus of the market, and its results will directly affect the trends of gold and the U.S. dollar. Currently, the market expects the CPI to reach 2.9%, which is an increase compared to the previous value of 2.7%.

If actual data is higher than expected, it will indicate that inflation remains resilient. This situation may force the Federal Reserve to slow down the pace of interest rate cuts in the fourth quarter of this year, which could create pressure on gold prices in the short term while supporting a stronger dollar.

It is worth noting that the latest prediction for CPI in the U.S. inflation swap market is 2.91%, with a month-on-month increase of 0.38%, both of which are higher than the general market expectations. This indicates a certain degree of rise risk. The prediction model has been accurate in 8 out of the last 10 forecasts, thus having a high reference value.

Based on this, if the released CPI data is greater than or equal to 2.9%, it can be seen as favorable for the dollar; if it is below expectations, although it may not be favorable for the dollar in the short term, it will not change the market's expectation of a possible interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve on September 18. In this case, the market reaction may reflect more emotional fluctuations.

Comprehensive analysis suggests that the CPI data is likely to fall within the range of 2.9% to 3.0%. If it exceeds 3.0%, it will significantly increase the likelihood of a 50 basis point rate cut in September, although the probability of this happening remains relatively low.

Regardless of the final data, the possibility of market trends has already emerged. Investors need to make cautious decisions about whether to establish positions based on their own situations and risk preferences. At this critical moment, it is essential to remain calm and rational.