The non-farm employment is overstated and awaits correction, monetary policy faces challenges.

1. Officials' Expectations

- Federal Reserve Governor Waller: The annual benchmark revision of non-farm employment could be -720,000.
- U.S. Treasury Secretary Basent: The revision of the 2024 employment data may be lowered by as much as 800,000.

II. Institutional Views

- Nomura Securities: Expect a downward revision of 600,000 to 900,000, with a monthly average downward revision of 50,000 to 75,000, having limited impact on monetary policy, maintaining the expectation of a 25 basis point rate cut starting in September.
- ING: Expects a downward revision of 500,000 to 800,000, anticipating that the Federal Reserve will enter a 150 basis point easing cycle before the summer of next year, but a 50 basis point rate cut in September is unlikely to gain majority support.
- Standard Chartered: Monthly data may exaggerate by 40,000 to 70,000, this time may revise down by 550,000 to 800,000, supporting a 50 basis point rate cut in September, but subsequent rate cut space is limited.
- Wells Fargo, LendSure, Pansend Macro: Expect a downward revision of nearly 800,000, with a monthly average downward revision of about 67,000.
- Goldman Sachs: Monthly employment may be overestimated by 45,000, with a cumulative annual increase of 550,000 to 800,000.
- Bank of America, Royal Bank of Canada: Expect to revise down nearly 1 million. #美联储降息预期#