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#Nonfarm Payrolls Incoming
📅 U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls – August 2025
Markets are holding their breath. The nonfarm payrolls report due this Friday is more than just a number—it will shape the Fed’s rate decisions, the direction of the dollar, and the pulse of crypto markets.
🔍 What Do the Latest Figures Say?
- July report: 73K
- Forecast: 106K
- Previous month: 14K
These numbers signal a cooling labor market. Notably, revisions to June and May data show a combined 258K fewer jobs, reinforcing the slowdown.
📉 Unemployment Rate: Rises to 4.2%
📈 Average Hourly Earnings: Up 0.3% MoM, 3.9% YoY
Wage growth continues to exert inflationary pressure.
🧠 Macro Impact
- Fed rate cut probability is priced in at 83%
- Yet Powell’s recent remarks—“risk balance is shifting”—suggest a cautious stance
- The Chicago Fed Index has declined, indicating weakening growth momentum
🎯 Strategic Outlook
This report won’t just steer the U.S. economy—it will shape global risk sentiment.
- Below expectations: Dollar weakens, gold and crypto may rally
- Above expectations: Fed could stay hawkish, risk assets may face pressure
📌 My Position:
Today, I lean neutral-to-bearish. The data is soft, but the Fed’s cautious tone could surprise markets. That’s why a hedged strategy and news-driven position updates are essential.