2100NEWS WEEKLY CRYPTO REPORT Aug-22

The crypto index NWST1100 recovered by 2.87% last week. Ether has outperformed other segments, surging by 44.97% in the previous thirty days.

*Below, we present a standardized weekly report and next week’s outlook, prepared based on the Theory Swingtum of intelligent finance. We gauge the crypto market’s breadth and direction by showing charts 2100NEWS Digital Assets Total Index (NWST1100), which measures 1100 (by market capitalization) significant crypto assets’ performance. The information-laden chart is complex to read initially, but it effectively displays essential price information, crucial decisive price levels, momentum, trading volumes, and crypto market breadth. Monitoring Market Sentiment and Breadth is necessary to detect early signs of trend reversals or continued strength.

After conducting a detailed examination of the NWST1100 chart, a vital metric for the cryptocurrency market, several essential market dynamics and changes in market sentiment are revealed:

The NWST1100 gained 2.87% last week. After retreating from earlier highs, the index stabilized and rebounded midweek, closing near 8,496. Price action fluctuated within the upper Keltner Band, with resistance clustered around R1 (~8,800) and support near the 25-day EMA (~8,150). The rejection at the upper boundary earlier in August signaled that the rally had matured, and since then, the market has settled into a volatile range-bound consolidation.

Market Sentiment (PPO & RSI): The PPO lines remain positive but are flattening, while the histogram recovered toward zero, reflecting waning momentum. The RSI hovered in neutral territory, finishing the week at 55, confirming that upside strength has cooled.

Crypto Market Breadth indicators at the bottom of the chart, including the Advance-Decline Volume Line (ADVPL) and the McClellan Summation Index, slipped modestly, highlighting a lack of thrust in breadth.

According to the chart on the right, all A50R indicators across all major segments (NWST1100, NWSET100, NWSL100, NWSCo100) have risen; 53% of NWST1100 constituents are above their 50-day EMA. Large Caps (NWSL100) and Ethereum-based tokens (NWSET100) remain the strongest cohorts, with 67–69% above their 50-day averages. This confirms that the rebound is selective and quality-driven, concentrated in large-cap and Ethereum-linked assets, while broader speculative segments still underperform.

This breadth indicator measures the percentage of digital assets trading above a 50-day moving average

* The percentage of digital assets trading above a specific moving average is a breadth indicator that measures internal strength or weakness in the underlying index. The chart on the right side compares the percentage of DA trading above the 50-day EMA for:

1. 100 Large-caps members of NWSL100 (top box)
2. 1100 members of NWST1100
3. 100 Ethereum Tokens members of NWSET100
4. 100 Coins members of NWSCo100 (bottom box)

📉 Summary

In Summary, the crypto market staged a rebound within its broader consolidation phase. Yet, the approach of significant resistance levels warrants caution. Momentum is fading, breadth is hesitant, and the market remains range-bound — conditions where traders must shift from chasing upside to managing risk and preserving gains.

Outlook for this week

This report examines the cryptocurrency market’s short-term outlook, identifying patterns and signals that may offer insights into potential market direction. While predicting market behavior is inherently uncertain, discernible trends in momentum and market breadth indicators suggest possible developments.

1. The RSI (Relative Strength Index) closed last week at 55, flat and firmly in neutral territory. Having exited overbought conditions, the index is now embedded in a corrective wave, signaling digestion rather than breakdown.
2. The PPO histogram, which measures the rate of change (i.e., the first derivative) of PPO lines, is climbing back toward the zero line and is likely to cross into positive territory. Historically, the second attempt to enter positive territory succeeds in most cases, suggesting that momentum could recover in the coming days. At the same time, PPO lines are converging toward the zero axis, a decision zone where the market often resolves its consolidation.
3. The Breadth indicators at the bottom of the first chart (NWST1100) point to fragility. Participation weakened last week, and deterioration appeared to accelerate, indicating active selling pressure. However, breadth often steadies or turns upward into month-end flows, which could support a short-lived rally if support levels hold.

📌 Target and Scenario Considerations:

Most likely scenario: The NWST1100 drifts downward within the range channel defined by the 25-day EMA and Resistance R1, with a test of the lower boundary near 25-day EMA (~8,200). If this test occurs before Friday, a relief rally from the lower boundary is likely — but such a rebound would remain capped near resistance R1 and should not be mistaken for the start of a new trend leg.📍 Key levels to watch:

Resistance: 8,800 (Pivot R1)

Support: 8,200 (EMA25), 7,800 (Pivot P)

Performance of different groups of Digital Assets (Coins and Tokens)

Investors and traders often rely on historical performance data to make informed decisions about their cryptocurrency holdings. After analyzing the data in the table, it is evident that the crypto market has rebounded, with the overall index recovering by 2.87% over the last week. The chart above highlights the performance of various cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin, Ether, and the 2100NEWS Indices, which represent the performance of Ethereum-based tokens (NWSET100), large caps (NWSL100), and Coins (NWSCo100). Among these, Ether stood out, significantly outperforming other segments with a remarkable 23.90% gain over the past thirty days.

While the broader market has rebounded, different segments and individual cryptocurrencies exhibit different performance dynamics.

Performance Trends by Market Segment:

✔ Ether, NWSET100 (Ethereum-based tokens), NWS30, and NWSL100 (Large Caps) led the market**,**

✔ NWSBE, Bitcoin, and NWSCo100 (Coins) lagged.

Investors and traders might use this information to adjust their portfolios, possibly shifting focus toward assets with stronger relative momentum while being cautious about those in the Weakening quadrant.

*RRG® charts show the relative strength and momentum of groups of digital assets. Those with strong relative strength and momentum appear in the green Leading quadrant. As relative momentum fades, they typically move into the yellow Weakening quadrant. If relative strength then fades, they move into the red Lagging quadrant. Finally, when momentum picks up again, they shift into the blue Improving quadrant.

Crypto (Digital Assets) compared with global equity

This report offers a comprehensive analysis comparing the performance of digital assets, as signified by the NWST1100 index, to shares on global capital markets, as represented by the Dow Jones Global W1Dow index. The comparison spans various timeframes, providing insights into both historical and recent performances, as well as potential future trends.

Let’s break down the key observations and implications:

• Historical Performance Comparison:
  • 45 Months Ago: Digital assets showcased a notable outperformance against shares in global capital markets, reaching a record high in the comparative quotient between the NWST1100 and W1Dow indexes. At this juncture, digital assets displayed a notably superior performance trajectory compared to shares on global capital markets.
  • Over the past twelve months, digital assets have outperformed equities by 53.3%.
• Mean Reversion Opportunity:
  • Over the past 143 working days, the average quotient price, represented by a blue dashed curve, stands at 10.78, while the current spot ratio is 12.13. This is higher than the long-term mean of 8.54, which has increased since October.
  • The mean reversion theory suggests that asset prices tend to revert to their historical average returns over time. The current average quotient price above the long-run mean could imply that digital assets are still trading at a relative premium to historical trends.
• Returns Comparison:
  • The chart also presents the returns achieved by the simplified index-based accumulation approach—buying one index point per day over 12 months—to simulate a mechanical exposure build-up. While this method is not equivalent to classical dollar-cost averaging (which involves investing a fixed amount of capital daily), it offers a consistent benchmark to compare historical costs and returns. The NWST1100 Crypto Index has risen by 77.55% over the past twelve months. With daily index investments, an investor’s stock price would have resulted in a gain of 29.5% on the current index price, reflecting unprofitable purchases due to high entry prices during a prolonged market uptrend when prices remained above the 143-day moving average for an extended period.
  • The DJW, representing global capital market shares, has risen 16.12% over the past twelve months. However, a strategy involving daily purchases would have resulted in a gain of 11.1%.
• Conclusion:

The recent rally highlights the importance of tracking market swings. Historically, the best opportunities have emerged when sentiment was weakest and prices were below the 143-day EMA. Conversely, when the market rallies strongly and extends far above the 143-day EMA, as it is now, it is often prudent to start building cash reserves to take advantage of future pullbacks.

*The box in the middle of the chart shows the original NWST1100 price; at the bottom is W1Dow