The strength of the US stock market contrasts with the weakness of the real economy, and the risk of recession still exists.

2025-08-22 00:20:20

[Coin World] pointed out in a report that there is a discrepancy between the performance of the U.S. stock market and the overall economy. Although the S&P 500 index has risen nearly 10% year-to-date, the process has been bumpy, with a retracement of about 20% in April. The report shows that the annualized growth rate of real consumer spending in the first half of 2025 is 1%, and the growth rate of real GDP continues to slow down. A Bloomberg survey indicates that the average probability of a recession in the U.S. economy over the next year is 35%.

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