Current Crypto Assets Market Analysis: The Dual Impact of Fund Theft Incidents and Changes in the Global Economic Landscape

Recently, the Crypto Assets market has experienced significant adjustments, mainly due to two reasons:

Micro Level: Continuous Large-Scale Capital Loss Events

Last week's theft incident involving Bybit and the recent Infini incident has raised market concerns. For Bybit, a loss of $1.5 billion is equivalent to about a year's net profit, which is a huge blow for a company in its expansion phase. Based on financial data from Coinbase, it is speculated that Bybit may need to compensate for the loss through financing and other means, which will increase its capital costs and affect future expansion.

These events have little impact on cryptocurrency traders who are used to high risks, but clearly shaken the confidence of traditional capital. The outflow of funds from the BTC ETF indicates that the attack events have triggered a large outflow of funds, reflecting the negative views of traditional investors.

Macroscopic Level: Changes in Global Economic Landscape

1. The issue of the U.S. fiscal deficit: It stems from the economic stimulus policies during the pandemic and the Treasury's bond issuance strategy. This has led to a sharp increase in the short-term debt repayment pressure, affecting the government's credit and financing capabilities.

2. Risk of Stagflation in the U.S.: Economic growth stagnation coexists with intensified inflation. The outcomes of the DeepSeek open-source week may impact the U.S. AI industry chain, lowering the valuations of related companies. At the same time, the valuations of Chinese tech stocks are starting to revert.

3. Dollar Trend: There is a divergence in the market regarding the direction of the dollar's policy. A strong dollar benefits dollar assets but is detrimental to internal industrialization; the opposite is true for a weak dollar. Considering the fragility of the U.S. economy, the dollar trend may show a pattern of initially strong followed by weak.

4. China's Asset Revaluation: Benefiting from new developments in the AI field and a reduction in geopolitical risks, the valuations of Chinese companies have shown a rebound. The rise in Hong Kong stocks is mainly driven by southbound capital and overseas passive funds.

Impact on the Crypto Assets Market

The current market has many uncertainties, and it is recommended that investors adopt a barbell strategy to enhance the risk resistance of their investment portfolio. They can allocate to blue-chip Crypto Assets or participate in low-risk DeFi projects, while also making small positions in high-volatility assets.

In the short term, multiple adverse factors have put pressure on the market, but no clear structural risks have emerged yet. If the market experiences an excessive correction, it may be worth considering a moderate position.