Bitcoin ETF Market Analysis: How Does Institutional Entry Impact the Market?

Recently, several well-known financial institutions have successively applied to the SEC for a Bitcoin spot ETF, attracting widespread attention in the market. As institutional participation continues to rise, cryptocurrency investment products are gradually moving towards standardization. This article will delve into the impact of institutional entry on the crypto market, starting from the operational situation of existing Bitcoin ETFs and trust funds.

Spot ETF and Trust Fund Holdings

As of July 18, the total holdings of the three major Bitcoin funds, BTCC.U, BTCE, and GBTC, amount to approximately 675,600 BTC, equivalent to 2.027 billion USD at current market prices. Since June, these three funds have collectively increased their holdings by 9,292 BTC, showing an overall growth trend. Among them, GBTC is the largest, holding 625,200 BTC; both BTCC.U and BTCE hold around 200,000 BTC.

In terms of yield, BTCC.U performed the best, with an average yield of 6.76% this month and an average yield of 8.84% this year. BTCE and GBTC are in a loss state, but the loss margin is narrowing. In terms of trading volume, GBTC is far ahead, with an average daily transaction of 3.926 million shares this month, far exceeding the other two funds. It is worth noting that since June, the trading volume of each fund has grown to varying degrees, reflecting investors' positive expectations for institutional entry.

Futures ETF Scale and Performance

The total asset size of the five main Bitcoin futures ETFs in the market has reached $1.295 billion. Among them, the BITO issued by ProShares has the largest size, with total assets of $1.199 billion. The XBTF and BTF issued by VanEck and Valkyrie also have relatively large sizes, with total assets exceeding $30 million each.

From the perspective of return performance, BITS performed the best, with a return rate of 33.20% in the past month and 137.65% year-to-date. Other futures ETFs generally have a return rate of over 70%, overall outperforming spot ETFs and trust funds. In terms of capital flow, BITO had a net inflow of $259 million in the past month and a net inflow of $333 million year-to-date, occupying an absolute advantage.

The Impact of ETF News on Bitcoin Prices

The news of institutions applying for and issuing ETFs often has a certain impact on Bitcoin prices. Data shows that after the announcement of a certain asset management company's application for a Bitcoin spot ETF, the average daily price of Bitcoin increased by 2.78% within a week, marking the largest increase within the statistical range. In addition, during a rapid growth period of a certain trust fund, there was also a significant increase in Bitcoin prices.

Overall, the impact of ETF-related news on Bitcoin prices mainly depends on three factors: first, the market influence of the applying institution; second, the type of ETF, as spot ETF applications usually lead to larger price increases; third, the price trend of Bitcoin at the time the news is released. It is worth noting that the recent surge in on-chain Bitcoin transaction volume has also been one of the important factors driving the price increase.

As institutional participation continues to rise, the Bitcoin ETF market will keep expanding. This not only provides investors with more standardized investment channels but is also expected to bring more incremental funds to the entire crypto market. The future development trend of Bitcoin ETFs is worth continuous attention.