Bitcoin's rise is hindered at the $112,000 level, and the market may undergo sideways consolidation in the short term.

The tax cut bill promoted by the Trump administration has been passed in the House of Representatives and is expected to be officially signed on July 5. Although this large-scale bill helps to advance the domestic agenda, it could lead to millions of Americans losing their health insurance and increase the U.S. debt by $3.4 trillion. Nevertheless, the non-farm employment data for June showed strong performance, with 147,000 new jobs added and the unemployment rate dropping to 4.1%, providing a buffer for the implementation of the policy. This employment report prompted the market's expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September to drop from 98% to 80%.

However, Goldman Sachs analysts have a different view. They have lowered their forecast for U.S. Treasury yields and maintain that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates consecutively in September, October, and December, citing that job growth mainly depends on local government hiring and a weak labor participation rate. In addition, the Trump administration plans to send tariff notices to multiple countries starting July 4, expecting to impose tariffs ranging from 60%-70% or 10%-20% on 10 to 12 countries.

The compliance process in the cryptocurrency industry is also accelerating. The chief analyst of a certain group pointed out that a well-known stablecoin issuer has applied for a national trust bank license in the United States, which is a landmark event for the development of the industry. If this stablecoin becomes the first issuer regulated by federal authorities, it will consolidate its institutional market position, promote industry standardization, and help integrate anti-money laundering and counter-terrorism financing systems.

In this macro context, the Bitcoin market reacts sensitively. After the non-farm payroll data was released, the Bitcoin price briefly surged towards the $110,000 mark but failed to break through. Nevertheless, several analysts remain optimistic about the medium to long-term prospects of Bitcoin. Some analysts predict that Bitcoin may rise to $116,000 by the end of this month, and some have even given a target price of $170,000.

However, short-term risks still exist. The most direct resistance level currently is at $112,000, where there are a large number of sell orders. Technical analysis shows that a bearish divergence has formed when the price hit $110,500; if it cannot break through, the support range below is between $106,000 and $107,500. A well-known industry figure warned that Trump's tax cut plan could lead to a short-term contraction in dollar liquidity, or cause Bitcoin prices to fall back to the range of $90,000 to $95,000. He expects that before the end of August, the market may trade sideways or slightly decline, and after liquidity recovers in early September, it may welcome a rise.

The altcoin market is performing unevenly, with some tokens seeing slight rises, but the majority are still declining. Notably, some emerging tokens such as $PENGU, $LuckyCoin, and $invest are performing well, with significant increases.

As of July 4th, 12:00 HKT, the price of Bitcoin is $109,188, and the price of Ethereum is $2,579.71. The market fear and greed index is 73, indicating a greedy range. The market shares of Bitcoin and Ethereum are 64.5% and 9.2%, respectively. In the past 24 hours, a total of 81,349 people have been liquidated globally, with a total liquidation amount of $193 million.

As of July 3, the net inflow for Bitcoin ETF is $602 million, and the net inflow for Ethereum ETF is $149 million.

Due to Independence Day in the United States, the US stock market will be closed all day on July 4th. In the cryptocurrency market, a certain wallet will launch a new token, and a dual governance proposal from a certain DAO has been approved and will go live today.

In terms of hot news, some large institutions and individual investors have recently made moves in the cryptocurrency market. A certain capital management company increased its holdings in Ethereum, while early whales deposited a large amount of ETH into exchanges. A certain cryptocurrency research institution sold a large quantity of a certain token but still holds a considerable amount. In addition, a bank in Switzerland has started supporting the custody and trading of a certain stablecoin.